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>Countries that didn't confined ( brazil and sweden) didn't show that much of a difference compared to some others that did (france). Huh? France had an early

• codemonkey-zeta 6y ago
  I agree that they are different graphs, but to the parent's point are they at all concerning? Here's the logarithmic graph for Brazil: https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=Brazil&show=25&y=both&scale=log&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=left#countries-normalized https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countr... It's a breatiful plateu, which indicates that we do not have the super-scary exponential growth we were all warned about by these models. As the parent said, the models were off by an order of magnitude at least.
  • matthewdgreen 6y ago
    It is not the case that Brazil (at a state level) is doing nothing. It is the case that Brazil and France did things to very different degrees, and as a result have seen stunningly different results, as evidenced by those graphs. (And contradicting the assertion of the GP poster.)
    • jkinudsjknds 6y ago
      I don't think you did this intentionally, but you posted two different charts. The Brazil chart is cases per day. The France chart is deaths per day. And so the difference looks extreme. When you just look at deaths per day, Brazil is oscillating around 4 deaths per day while France fell to 0 (per million). They're definitely not the same, but... idk, they're not stunning differences imo.
    • codemonkey-zeta 6y ago
      Yes I totally agree with both of your comments. I wanted to change the topic of conversation to the point the parent made. Maybe I should have replied to parent with that point. Thanks for showing me that site! I still want to know if anyone thinks the parent's skepticism of climate change models is/isn't warranted given the fact that the scientific research community (epidemiologists, virologists, and scientists generally [AFAIK]) basically aligned completely with the view that anything other than extreme responses to Covid would end in disastrous ruin by generating and pointing to these models. I want to be clear that I am not questioning the science of climate change here, but how do we know that the models we rely on to predict the future effects of climate change will be accurate? Could Covid really be an indicator that the scientific community is the boy who cried wolf? I'm not saying I think that, but I don't know enough to completely discredit the position.
• Udik 6y ago
  They look nothing alike because they're not plotting the same data? In the links you posted, the graph for France shows new deaths per million, the one for Brasil shows new cases. This is a graph for deaths comparing France (total lockdown) and Sweden and Brasil (no lockdown): https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries-normalized&highlight=France&show=25&y=both&scale=linear&data=deaths-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=left&extra=Sweden%2CBrazil#countries-normalized https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countr... Brasil never had the peak that we had in Europe. And the difference between the total lockdown of France and Sweden's business as usual is visible but not dramatic. I find it incredible, and humbling, that we understand so little about the spread of a simple respiratory virus.
  • matthewdgreen 6y ago
    If I pasted the wrong link, you can use the small drop-down menu to switch from one metric to another. You'll see essentially the same trends.