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I think the difference here is that climate change has been studied for decades, meanwhile COVID-19 is more or less a new phenomenon since Christmas. The former

I think the difference here is that climate change has been studied for decades, meanwhile COVID-19 is more or less a new phenomenon since Christmas. The former has had a lot more time to be observed and have hypothesis’ tested. What’s your guess that our climate change predictions are off? And by how much?

bsaul 6y ago
i think the number of times we've seen articles saying how there's going to be no ice anymore in 5/10 years on the poles, during the last 25 years, should be a hint that estimates aren't even reliable on a 10 years time range. I wouldn't be too afraid when the same people predict horrible things in 100 years. i sometimes have the feeling that those models don't do much more that extrapolate exponentials and lines, without any kind of comprehension of the underlying phenomenons ( at least that's my feeling with covid models.. i know climate models are actually better than that)
- FzguLzLA5BDxVC 6y ago
  I've never seen a reasonable (or any, in fact) person claim there's going to be "no more ice" on really any timeline. Could you link one of these studies? Sometimes people will make claims that are wrong, but I would think twice before doubting the consensus of (practically) the entire scientific community (the consensus being climate change is real, and is real bad. To the point that we need to do something immediately)
  - bsaul 6y ago
    https://youtu.be/MsioIw4bvzI https://youtu.be/MsioIw4bvzI
- danbolt 6y ago
  > i sometimes have the feeling that those models don't do much more that extrapolate exponentials and lines, without any kind of comprehension of the underlying phenomenons At the end of the day, all we have is our feelings. In terms of our decision-making and understanding of the world, though, I think it's important to recognize the general distributed consensus from observations around us. If you're feeling those pangs of doubt, I'd encourage you to try to find the dry citations behind the articles that you've mentioned.
beerandt 6y ago
Covid is new, but infectious disease isn't and pandemics aren't. Covid models are just epidemiology models with a given set of covid specific input parameters. If a climate model doesn't work with a certain set of unpredictable input parameters, that means the model is either broken or irrelevant. Same for these covid models. Don't confuse the data for the algorithm.

bsaul 6y ago

i think the number of times we've seen articles saying how there's going to be no ice anymore in 5/10 years on the poles, during the last 25 years, should be a hint that estimates aren't even reliable on a 10 years time range. I wouldn't be too afraid when the same people predict horrible things in 100 years. i sometimes have the feeling that those models don't do much more that extrapolate exponentials and lines, without any kind of comprehension of the underlying phenomenons ( at least that's my feeling with covid models.. i know climate models are actually better than that)

FzguLzLA5BDxVC 6y ago
I've never seen a reasonable (or any, in fact) person claim there's going to be "no more ice" on really any timeline. Could you link one of these studies? Sometimes people will make claims that are wrong, but I would think twice before doubting the consensus of (practically) the entire scientific community (the consensus being climate change is real, and is real bad. To the point that we need to do something immediately)
- bsaul 6y ago
  https://youtu.be/MsioIw4bvzI https://youtu.be/MsioIw4bvzI
danbolt 6y ago
> i sometimes have the feeling that those models don't do much more that extrapolate exponentials and lines, without any kind of comprehension of the underlying phenomenons At the end of the day, all we have is our feelings. In terms of our decision-making and understanding of the world, though, I think it's important to recognize the general distributed consensus from observations around us. If you're feeling those pangs of doubt, I'd encourage you to try to find the dry citations behind the articles that you've mentioned.

beerandt 6y ago

Covid is new, but infectious disease isn't and pandemics aren't. Covid models are just epidemiology models with a given set of covid specific input parameters. If a climate model doesn't work with a certain set of unpredictable input parameters, that means the model is either broken or irrelevant. Same for these covid models. Don't confuse the data for the algorithm.