4 ms·

Covid-19 brought the 'largest criminology experiment in history'

36 points by harambae 6y ago

pwinnski 6y ago
The key quote seems to be: "That drop in crime, though, has not been uniform across types of offenses. Some crimes rose while others fell. A dissection of the interplay of this rise and fall — at a time when human routines and activities are largely frozen — may be the key, he says." So crime is down dramatically, but not consistently, feeding one researcher's favorite theory that crime is less about who is doing the crime and more about circumstances. "His premise is crime happens when three things converge: a capable offender, a suitable target and the absence of an appropriate guardian."
- sgc 6y ago
  But what a pedestrian, generic analysis that is. Based on that statement offenders are just there, and the only thing we can do is get ever bigger, more vigilant sticks since we are outside the situation and "it is what it is". Sounds like the manifesto of broken modern policing. Instead, places that work on social programs see crime drop, because even if people are capable, they are not offenders since they have received the intellectual, emotional, psychological, economic, etc assistance they needed. Obviously some people will remain offenders and police are necessary. But by now we should know better than this, and that type of statement should not be the linchpin of any criminology.
  - cassianoleal 6y ago
    Yeah, my first thought when I read that was that it also takes a willing offender. I have been in many situations where I met all three criteria and still didn't offend because I have the privilege of stronger morals, greater willpower and a support network.
    - Izkata 6y ago
      Then you weren't an offender. "Willing" is implied by the use of "offender" instead of "person".
pyronik19 6y ago
I'm more interested in the recidivism rates of criminals let out on COVID compassionate release. In Maryland recently they released a rapist and he murdered the victim. There are a bunch of anecdotes that warrant looking at these dangerous policies and the risk we are putting towards the general population to reduce the risk of exposure to criminals. I've thought it was a foolhardy exercise to begin with.
tsherr 6y ago
The National Post is Canada's Fox News. Read at your peril
crocodiletears 6y ago
Our local PD has entirely stopped enforcing against low-level offenses unless the perpetrator's name or location are known, and for several months were dissallowed from performing traffic stops in order to keep the police healthy for other more pressing calls. If this is at all typical, I'm not certain how reliable any COVID-era crime statistics are, and should probably be integrated into more generalized models with the utmost care.
buisi 6y ago
Online crime is likely to rise with all the people who're locked at home with nothing to do and are newly unemployed.
- MaximumYComb 6y ago
  You also need to consider that the people with the skills to commit most cybercrime are also likely to be working in roles where working from home is suitable. It's the small businesses, retail/service workers and blue collar areas that are being hit the hardest with unemployment due to covid.

36 points by harambae 6y ago

The key quote seems to be: "That drop in crime, though, has not been uniform across types of offenses. Some crimes rose while others fell. A dissection of the interplay of this rise and fall — at a time when human routines and activities are largely frozen — may be the key, he says." So crime is down dramatically, but not consistently, feeding one researcher's favorite theory that crime is less about who is doing the crime and more about circumstances. "His premise is crime happens when three things converge: a capable offender, a suitable target and the absence of an appropriate guardian."

sgc 6y ago
But what a pedestrian, generic analysis that is. Based on that statement offenders are just there, and the only thing we can do is get ever bigger, more vigilant sticks since we are outside the situation and "it is what it is". Sounds like the manifesto of broken modern policing. Instead, places that work on social programs see crime drop, because even if people are capable, they are not offenders since they have received the intellectual, emotional, psychological, economic, etc assistance they needed. Obviously some people will remain offenders and police are necessary. But by now we should know better than this, and that type of statement should not be the linchpin of any criminology.
- cassianoleal 6y ago
  Yeah, my first thought when I read that was that it also takes a willing offender. I have been in many situations where I met all three criteria and still didn't offend because I have the privilege of stronger morals, greater willpower and a support network.
  - Izkata 6y ago
    Then you weren't an offender. "Willing" is implied by the use of "offender" instead of "person".

pyronik19 6y ago

I'm more interested in the recidivism rates of criminals let out on COVID compassionate release. In Maryland recently they released a rapist and he murdered the victim. There are a bunch of anecdotes that warrant looking at these dangerous policies and the risk we are putting towards the general population to reduce the risk of exposure to criminals. I've thought it was a foolhardy exercise to begin with.

tsherr 6y ago

The National Post is Canada's Fox News. Read at your peril

crocodiletears 6y ago

Our local PD has entirely stopped enforcing against low-level offenses unless the perpetrator's name or location are known, and for several months were dissallowed from performing traffic stops in order to keep the police healthy for other more pressing calls. If this is at all typical, I'm not certain how reliable any COVID-era crime statistics are, and should probably be integrated into more generalized models with the utmost care.

buisi 6y ago

Online crime is likely to rise with all the people who're locked at home with nothing to do and are newly unemployed.

MaximumYComb 6y ago
You also need to consider that the people with the skills to commit most cybercrime are also likely to be working in roles where working from home is suitable. It's the small businesses, retail/service workers and blue collar areas that are being hit the hardest with unemployment due to covid.