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From what I've read it's very likely they'll be rolling out vaccines with ~50% effectiveness this year (and deploying it in high volumes in 2021). The vaccine d

From what I've read it's very likely they'll be rolling out vaccines with ~50% effectiveness this year (and deploying it in high volumes in 2021). The vaccine doesn't have to be perfect. As long as it's proven safe, confers some level of protection and is deployed in badly affected areas (including nursing homes) it will help drop the death numbers and we'll reach herd immunity faster. Operation Warp Speed has meant a huge amount tax payer money is being thrown at this.

jessaustin 6y ago
Everything I've heard/read on the vaccine topic has pegged my personal wishful thinking meter. We don't currently have a vaccine for any virus similar to SARS-CoV-2. The nearest thing is the annual flu vaccine, and while they are sometimes as much as 60% effective they're normally more like 40% effective. (Some people say that SARS-CoV-2 won't mutate as much as influenza, but the only reason to believe it won't mutate enough to matter [given that the D614 -> G614 spike protein mutation basically took over the world in a couple of months, and that's something we already know about] is more wishful thinking.) A vaccine anywhere near as ineffective as the flu vaccine needs to see universal treatment to even move the needle on "herd immunity". In the current climate in USA (and maybe some other nations, I don't know?) there's no way we'll get even 70% treatment. Also, it's August already. Although some other nations have fast reliable testing for anyone who needs it, USA CDC is still struggling to field a convenient test. How are these people going to crank out hundreds of millions of vaccine doses by November? That isn't totally Trump's fault, but he has certainly been among the public figures giving us the vaccine song-and-dance. He may need to somehow trick Biden into saying something like "I believe in the new vaccine that the wonderful scientists have given us" right before everyone realizes what a fairy tale it has been. We'll still see high-six-figures of Americans dead by election time. Any political machine that actually wanted to win could make a powerful argument out of all those dead people...
- rimliu 6y ago
  we currently have dozens of vacine candidates for SARS-CoV-2 not just "something similar". The reason to believe it won't mutate much is exactly in the difference of SARS-CoV-2 from influenza: coronaviruses mutate at much slover rate. I can add some wishful thinking parts though: coronaviruses usually mutate to get less severe, and the threshold for the herd immunity may be way lower than the 60% or 70% (cross-imunity, non-hemogenity, etc.). Not sure what it the point in comparing it to the influenza, because a) that's a very different virus b) there are several different strains of the flu floating around so is is a guessing game.
  - chefkoch 6y ago
    There are less than 100 days to the election and they are only running the first human trials. Imho there is no way a vaccine makes it to public in time for Trump.
    - someperson 6y ago
      The vaccine doesn't need to roll out and the crisis to be over for Trump to win re-election. Just having the headlines full of promising results from the early trials, the starting of mass manufacturing and a clear timetable when the vaccine will begin its deployment may be provide enough "light at the end of the tunnel". Biden is also turning 78 years old soon. I wouldn't count Trump out for an electoral college victory.

jessaustin 6y ago

Everything I've heard/read on the vaccine topic has pegged my personal wishful thinking meter. We don't currently have a vaccine for any virus similar to SARS-CoV-2. The nearest thing is the annual flu vaccine, and while they are sometimes as much as 60% effective they're normally more like 40% effective. (Some people say that SARS-CoV-2 won't mutate as much as influenza, but the only reason to believe it won't mutate enough to matter [given that the D614 -> G614 spike protein mutation basically took over the world in a couple of months, and that's something we already know about] is more wishful thinking.) A vaccine anywhere near as ineffective as the flu vaccine needs to see universal treatment to even move the needle on "herd immunity". In the current climate in USA (and maybe some other nations, I don't know?) there's no way we'll get even 70% treatment. Also, it's August already. Although some other nations have fast reliable testing for anyone who needs it, USA CDC is still struggling to field a convenient test. How are these people going to crank out hundreds of millions of vaccine doses by November? That isn't totally Trump's fault, but he has certainly been among the public figures giving us the vaccine song-and-dance. He may need to somehow trick Biden into saying something like "I believe in the new vaccine that the wonderful scientists have given us" right before everyone realizes what a fairy tale it has been. We'll still see high-six-figures of Americans dead by election time. Any political machine that actually wanted to win could make a powerful argument out of all those dead people...

rimliu 6y ago
we currently have dozens of vacine candidates for SARS-CoV-2 not just "something similar". The reason to believe it won't mutate much is exactly in the difference of SARS-CoV-2 from influenza: coronaviruses mutate at much slover rate. I can add some wishful thinking parts though: coronaviruses usually mutate to get less severe, and the threshold for the herd immunity may be way lower than the 60% or 70% (cross-imunity, non-hemogenity, etc.). Not sure what it the point in comparing it to the influenza, because a) that's a very different virus b) there are several different strains of the flu floating around so is is a guessing game.
- chefkoch 6y ago
  There are less than 100 days to the election and they are only running the first human trials. Imho there is no way a vaccine makes it to public in time for Trump.
  - someperson 6y ago
    The vaccine doesn't need to roll out and the crisis to be over for Trump to win re-election. Just having the headlines full of promising results from the early trials, the starting of mass manufacturing and a clear timetable when the vaccine will begin its deployment may be provide enough "light at the end of the tunnel". Biden is also turning 78 years old soon. I wouldn't count Trump out for an electoral college victory.