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Is it just me or does this feel like wishful thinking? I'm on my phone so its hard to dig into sources but the presentation just reeks of misleading by statisti

Is it just me or does this feel like wishful thinking? I'm on my phone so its hard to dig into sources but the presentation just reeks of misleading by statistics. I thought the main unemployment number included only people looking for work? If states dropped the LFW requirement from unemployment, that number would drop despite lots of people still on unemployment, no? I assume federal unemployment statistics focuses on other less state dependent metrics. Similarly the median house price is a farce if, like in the GFC, there's plenty of easy capital available for a land grab at the top. The prices could easily reflect increased competition and asset inflation, not something new about this financial crisis - and it wouldn't really be new, would it?

roenxi 6y ago
> Similarly the median house price is a farce if... Alternatively, what if people have stopped buying/selling cheap housing? If everyone except millionaires has dropped out of the market (say, due to lockdown restrictions) then the median house price will rise even if the market is dying. Particularly if the wealthy are desperately trying to turn cash into assets in response to the government largess. I suspect Mr. Carlson fell for Simpson's paradox with that one; it seems unlikely that the property market is booming. That chart isn't enough evidence.
- jhart99 6y ago
  Here are the stats from NAR. The average price has increased, but the volume is off by 10% year over year. The last slide shows sales volume by price. It isn't what I expected. It looks like sales are up around the median price while both the high and low end are way down. https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-06-2020-summary-2020-07-22.pdf https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-06...
- ultrasaurus 6y ago
  Over the past few months tens of thousands of high-income workers have been told they can WFH forever, and an above average house in most of the country looks awfully cheap compared to SF house on SV salaries.

roenxi 6y ago

> Similarly the median house price is a farce if... Alternatively, what if people have stopped buying/selling cheap housing? If everyone except millionaires has dropped out of the market (say, due to lockdown restrictions) then the median house price will rise even if the market is dying. Particularly if the wealthy are desperately trying to turn cash into assets in response to the government largess. I suspect Mr. Carlson fell for Simpson's paradox with that one; it seems unlikely that the property market is booming. That chart isn't enough evidence.

jhart99 6y ago
Here are the stats from NAR. The average price has increased, but the volume is off by 10% year over year. The last slide shows sales volume by price. It isn't what I expected. It looks like sales are up around the median price while both the high and low end are way down. https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-06-2020-summary-2020-07-22.pdf https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-06...
ultrasaurus 6y ago
Over the past few months tens of thousands of high-income workers have been told they can WFH forever, and an above average house in most of the country looks awfully cheap compared to SF house on SV salaries.