3 ms·

Rather than absolution via perceived failures by political opponents, maybe we can grant some compassion? The more important thing is that these later surges,

Rather than absolution via perceived failures by political opponents, maybe we can grant some compassion? The more important thing is that these later surges, which are not unexpected, are looking less deadly https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections/#...

perl4ever 6y ago
Yesterday, there were 9 deaths in NY from COVID-19, compared to 77 in Florida and 103 in Texas. Positive % for tests is way down too. Something like 50,000 people have died nationally since NY got things under control in early June. That didn't have to happen. It wouldn't have happened if, say, Cuomo was running the country. Because whatever mistakes were made in NY, it was turned around starting in early April. At that point, the national death toll was about 150,000 less than now.
- kbutler 6y ago
  > It wouldn't have happened if, say, Cuomo was running the country That's an amazing contention, especially if you look back at Cuomo's statements and policies over the course of the epidemic (Lunar New Year, nursing homes, etc.). He's so much wiser than 3-6 months ago? How many of those 50,000 deaths throughout the country since June are because NYC was "the primary source of new infections in the United States" by May? (New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavi...) I think you give the governors' actions both too much credit and too much blame and an apparent partisan difference on who gets which (apologies if that's not intended). My view of the data is that NY's density as well as mistakes allowed unmitigated & rapid spread of the virus, until the exposure and immunity reached levels at which the transmission is less likely & the most vulnerable population has been exposed/infected/died/recovered, making our efforts to limit propagation more effective. See https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/estimating-the-herd-immunity-threshold-hit-for-each-state/ https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/estimating-the-herd-immunit... and https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#statesherd https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#statesherd The virus continues to spread throughout the country, but the curve is flattened, minimizing the death toll from the infections (though it is still high!) More drastic interventions can slow that spread, but won't stop it. And remember that the collateral death toll (as well as non-fatal cost) of the mitigation actions is increasing as well - CDC/NYT reported on approx 50k (37%) "excess deaths" beyond covid-reported deaths - possibly from delayed medical care, despair, etc., as well as possible misreporting. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronaviru...

perl4ever 6y ago

Yesterday, there were 9 deaths in NY from COVID-19, compared to 77 in Florida and 103 in Texas. Positive % for tests is way down too. Something like 50,000 people have died nationally since NY got things under control in early June. That didn't have to happen. It wouldn't have happened if, say, Cuomo was running the country. Because whatever mistakes were made in NY, it was turned around starting in early April. At that point, the national death toll was about 150,000 less than now.

kbutler 6y ago
> It wouldn't have happened if, say, Cuomo was running the country That's an amazing contention, especially if you look back at Cuomo's statements and policies over the course of the epidemic (Lunar New Year, nursing homes, etc.). He's so much wiser than 3-6 months ago? How many of those 50,000 deaths throughout the country since June are because NYC was "the primary source of new infections in the United States" by May? (New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavi...) I think you give the governors' actions both too much credit and too much blame and an apparent partisan difference on who gets which (apologies if that's not intended). My view of the data is that NY's density as well as mistakes allowed unmitigated & rapid spread of the virus, until the exposure and immunity reached levels at which the transmission is less likely & the most vulnerable population has been exposed/infected/died/recovered, making our efforts to limit propagation more effective. See https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/estimating-the-herd-immunity-threshold-hit-for-each-state/ https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/estimating-the-herd-immunit... and https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#statesherd https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#statesherd The virus continues to spread throughout the country, but the curve is flattened, minimizing the death toll from the infections (though it is still high!) More drastic interventions can slow that spread, but won't stop it. And remember that the collateral death toll (as well as non-fatal cost) of the mitigation actions is increasing as well - CDC/NYT reported on approx 50k (37%) "excess deaths" beyond covid-reported deaths - possibly from delayed medical care, despair, etc., as well as possible misreporting. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronaviru...