To be fair, with most start ups if you say 'this will fail' you're probably right, what, about 4/5 times at least. But you'll never invest in Google, Dropbox, A

To be fair, with most start ups if you say 'this will fail' you're probably right, what, about 4/5 times at least. But you'll never invest in Google, Dropbox, AirBnB or whatever. Even the smartest VC's hit rates wouldn't be that great (i.e. say 3/4 of their investments make it) even though they make overall by picking the occasional drop box.