4 ms·
Good to know. My 25% numbers were from an announcement by Cuomo where the report claimed that the sample collection and data processing (corrections) were stati
by glofish 6y ago
Good to know. My 25% numbers were from an announcement by Cuomo where the report claimed that the sample collection and data processing (corrections) were statistically sound.
Even at 14% seropositivity the true number of people that had the virus is likely larger. There are reports that some (many?) people that recover do so without needed antibodies.
Working backwards, taking the fairly accepted value of 0.6% fatality rate, the 30K deaths in NYC would indicate around 5 million infections. Now the the NYC fatality rate is likely higher due to Cuomo's mind boggling order regarding nursing homes.
Regardless I think it is fair to estimate that the true number of cases in NYC is likely to fall between the reported 400k and the upper limit of 5 million. At 25% seropositivity would be around 2 million, to me sounds believable.