3 ms·
Logistic model? Never saw anyone use that model. Do you have reference? What one should expect, afaik, is a Gompertz curve - the derivative of which, depending
by beagle3 6y ago
Logistic model? Never saw anyone use that model. Do you have reference?
What one should expect, afaik, is a Gompertz curve - the derivative of which, depending on parameters, often rises quickly and drops slowly.
Michael Levitt calibrated a Gompertz model in April based on actions taken until that day, that predicted 5000 dead by 1-jul matched reality incredibly well - whereas the WHO/Ferguson model at the same time predicted 96,000 dead by 1-jul based on the same data.