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https://stevenpinker.com/files/pinker/files/pinker_comments_on_lead_removal_and_declining_crime_0.pdf https://stevenpinker.com/files/pinker/files/pinker_comment

https://stevenpinker.com/files/pinker/files/pinker_comments_on_lead_removal_and_declining_crime_0.pdf https://stevenpinker.com/files/pinker/files/pinker_comments_... Steven pinker makes some good points in this short essay why there should be more skepticism towards this hypothesis: “ Also, the parallelism in curves for lead and time-shifted crime seem too good to be true, since the lead hypothesis assumes that the effects of lead exposure are greatest in childhood. But 23 years after the first lower-lead cohort, only a small fraction of the crime-prone cohort should be lead-free; there are still all those lead-laden young adults who have many years of crime ahead of them. Only gradually should the crime-prone demographic sector be increasingly populated by lead-free kids. The time-shifted curve for crime should be an attenuated, smeared version of the curve for lead, not a perfect copy of it. Also, the effects of age on crime are not sharply peaked, with a spike around the 23rd birthday, and a sharp falloff—it’s a very gentle bulge spread out over the 15-30 age range. So you would not expect such a perfect time-shifted overlap as you might, for example, for first-grade reading performance, where the measurement is so restricted in time.” I’m also not convinced on your point about crime in California. The police have essentially ceased prosecuting many of those petty crimes. It makes sense that they would go up with no deterrence.

wahern 6y ago
Criticisms of the lead hypothesis are definitely noteworthy. Evidence for the lead hypothesis does seem too good to be true, and maybe is, especially as a single factor. > I’m also not convinced on your point about crime in California. The police have essentially ceased prosecuting many of those petty crimes. It makes sense that they would go up with no deterrence. Yes, of course. Progressives blame rising inequality for an increase in property crimes, but it seems quite obvious the immediate cause is a lack of prosecution as I'm fairly sure not many people are supporting families by ripping off stores and smashing car windows. And while municipalities could and should prosecute, both the police and district attorney offices have the habit of only vigorously pursuing felonies--increasingly only violent felonies.

wahern 6y ago

Criticisms of the lead hypothesis are definitely noteworthy. Evidence for the lead hypothesis does seem too good to be true, and maybe is, especially as a single factor. > I’m also not convinced on your point about crime in California. The police have essentially ceased prosecuting many of those petty crimes. It makes sense that they would go up with no deterrence. Yes, of course. Progressives blame rising inequality for an increase in property crimes, but it seems quite obvious the immediate cause is a lack of prosecution as I'm fairly sure not many people are supporting families by ripping off stores and smashing car windows. And while municipalities could and should prosecute, both the police and district attorney offices have the habit of only vigorously pursuing felonies--increasingly only violent felonies.