4 ms·

As opposed to the absurdity of claiming the deaths are from "our president and his sycophant governors"? But I wouldn't equate them - the goal of the early po

As opposed to the absurdity of claiming the deaths are from "our president and his sycophant governors"? But I wouldn't equate them - the goal of the early policy was to flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming the health care system. That appears to have been accomplished - it looks like these later surges will not match the deaths-per-detected-case or deaths-per-population seen in the New York area. Part of that is better testing and treatment available now, but another large part is better policy - such as not sending covid-positive patients back to nursing homes.

perl4ever 6y ago
If NY had such a terrible response, that's all the more reason why tens of thousands of additional people didn't have to die, if all the Republicans who hate Democrats had learned from it, rather than following leadership engaged in gaslighting people. Saying the states run by non-sycophants did terribly is an indictment of the Republicans, particularly the ones at the top, because of the chronology. You can say Newsom as well, should have learned, but that doesn't make it better for anyone else.
- kbutler 6y ago
  Thank your for recognizing that California and Newsom fit in the same general pattern as the widely derided, Republican-governed, late-surging states. I think the data above show that neither an R nor a D by the governor's name is significantly predictive of a state's performance, (but may be predictive of media coverage). Instead, mistakes have been made. But we've learned some things (but not really very much yet). Flattening the curve worked to delay infections and, well, _flatten_ the curve - not reduce total infections. We also seem to be getting some benefit from partial herd immunity at lower percentages of exposure than expected - probably because people are isolating and social distancing more, and possibly partial immunity from exposure to previous coronaviruses, and better treatments and policies are helping. These things are all helping states experiencing this later surge have a more moderate experience (and helping early states keep things controlled), and are much more significant than the governor's political party. So demonizing "sycophants" and "gaslighting" is not productive. Focus on behaviors and results, not politics.
  - perl4ever 6y ago
    >Thank your for recognizing that California and Newsom fit in the same general pattern as the widely derided, Republican-governed, late-surging states. I was acknowledging that having cases grow later indicates they also did something wrong, not that they did the same thing wrong as others nor for the same reasons. CA nor NY can not absolve the Republicans, no amount of failure by their enemies can absolve them of leading their own people to destruction.
    - kbutler 6y ago
      Rather than absolution via perceived failures by political opponents, maybe we can grant some compassion? The more important thing is that these later surges, which are not unexpected, are looking less deadly https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections/#...
      - perl4ever 6y ago
        Yesterday, there were 9 deaths in NY from COVID-19, compared to 77 in Florida and 103 in Texas. Positive % for tests is way down too. Something like 50,000 people have died nationally since NY got things under control in early June. That didn't have to happen. It wouldn't have happened if, say, Cuomo was running the country. Because whatever mistakes were made in NY, it was turned around starting in early April. At that point, the national death toll was about 150,000 less than now.
        kbutler 6y ago
        > It wouldn't have happened if, say, Cuomo was running the country That's an amazing contention, especially if you look back at Cuomo's statements and policies over the course of the epidemic (Lunar New Year, nursing homes, etc.). He's so much wiser than 3-6 months ago? How many of those 50,000 deaths throughout the country since June are because NYC was "the primary source of new infections in the United States" by May? (New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavi...) I think you give the governors' actions both too much credit and too much blame and an apparent partisan difference on who gets which (apologies if that's not intended). My view of the data is that NY's density as well as mistakes allowed unmitigated & rapid spread of the virus, until the exposure and immunity reached levels at which the transmission is less likely & the most vulnerable population has been exposed/infected/died/recovered, making our efforts to limit propagation more effective. See https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/estimating-the-herd-immunity-threshold-hit-for-each-state/ https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/estimating-the-herd-immunit... and https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#statesherd https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#statesherd The virus continues to spread throughout the country, but the curve is flattened, minimizing the death toll from the infections (though it is still high!) More drastic interventions can slow that spread, but won't stop it. And remember that the collateral death toll (as well as non-fatal cost) of the mitigation actions is increasing as well - CDC/NYT reported on approx 50k (37%) "excess deaths" beyond covid-reported deaths - possibly from delayed medical care, despair, etc., as well as possible misreporting. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronaviru...

perl4ever 6y ago

If NY had such a terrible response, that's all the more reason why tens of thousands of additional people didn't have to die, if all the Republicans who hate Democrats had learned from it, rather than following leadership engaged in gaslighting people. Saying the states run by non-sycophants did terribly is an indictment of the Republicans, particularly the ones at the top, because of the chronology. You can say Newsom as well, should have learned, but that doesn't make it better for anyone else.

kbutler 6y ago
Thank your for recognizing that California and Newsom fit in the same general pattern as the widely derided, Republican-governed, late-surging states. I think the data above show that neither an R nor a D by the governor's name is significantly predictive of a state's performance, (but may be predictive of media coverage). Instead, mistakes have been made. But we've learned some things (but not really very much yet). Flattening the curve worked to delay infections and, well, _flatten_ the curve - not reduce total infections. We also seem to be getting some benefit from partial herd immunity at lower percentages of exposure than expected - probably because people are isolating and social distancing more, and possibly partial immunity from exposure to previous coronaviruses, and better treatments and policies are helping. These things are all helping states experiencing this later surge have a more moderate experience (and helping early states keep things controlled), and are much more significant than the governor's political party. So demonizing "sycophants" and "gaslighting" is not productive. Focus on behaviors and results, not politics.
- perl4ever 6y ago
  >Thank your for recognizing that California and Newsom fit in the same general pattern as the widely derided, Republican-governed, late-surging states. I was acknowledging that having cases grow later indicates they also did something wrong, not that they did the same thing wrong as others nor for the same reasons. CA nor NY can not absolve the Republicans, no amount of failure by their enemies can absolve them of leading their own people to destruction.
  - kbutler 6y ago
    Rather than absolution via perceived failures by political opponents, maybe we can grant some compassion? The more important thing is that these later surges, which are not unexpected, are looking less deadly https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections/#...
    - perl4ever 6y ago
      Yesterday, there were 9 deaths in NY from COVID-19, compared to 77 in Florida and 103 in Texas. Positive % for tests is way down too. Something like 50,000 people have died nationally since NY got things under control in early June. That didn't have to happen. It wouldn't have happened if, say, Cuomo was running the country. Because whatever mistakes were made in NY, it was turned around starting in early April. At that point, the national death toll was about 150,000 less than now.
      - kbutler 6y ago
        > It wouldn't have happened if, say, Cuomo was running the country That's an amazing contention, especially if you look back at Cuomo's statements and policies over the course of the epidemic (Lunar New Year, nursing homes, etc.). He's so much wiser than 3-6 months ago? How many of those 50,000 deaths throughout the country since June are because NYC was "the primary source of new infections in the United States" by May? (New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavi...) I think you give the governors' actions both too much credit and too much blame and an apparent partisan difference on who gets which (apologies if that's not intended). My view of the data is that NY's density as well as mistakes allowed unmitigated & rapid spread of the virus, until the exposure and immunity reached levels at which the transmission is less likely & the most vulnerable population has been exposed/infected/died/recovered, making our efforts to limit propagation more effective. See https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/estimating-the-herd-immunity-threshold-hit-for-each-state/ https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/estimating-the-herd-immunit... and https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#statesherd https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/#statesherd The virus continues to spread throughout the country, but the curve is flattened, minimizing the death toll from the infections (though it is still high!) More drastic interventions can slow that spread, but won't stop it. And remember that the collateral death toll (as well as non-fatal cost) of the mitigation actions is increasing as well - CDC/NYT reported on approx 50k (37%) "excess deaths" beyond covid-reported deaths - possibly from delayed medical care, despair, etc., as well as possible misreporting. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronaviru...