3 ms·

Feasible in 10-25 years, IF there is no political turmoils, persistent calamities and foreign invasions. Recent 3 decades of positive progression doesn't really

Feasible in 10-25 years, IF there is no political turmoils, persistent calamities and foreign invasions. Recent 3 decades of positive progression doesn't really extrapolate well when it comes to China historically. Take a look at it's 5,000 years of civilization. Usually when into any succession dynasty, she frequently stagnate. If there are major calamities AND foreign invasions, the internal political struggles will initiate a dynastic change and balkanization. China frequently unite (now) and then breakup repetitively throughout the history.

magicsmoke 6y ago
China balkanized repeatedly during its 5000 year civilization because it was a premodern empire. Premodern empires don't have the same tools as modern states to enforce control down to the local level, so they run by co-opting local elites to do their work for them. However, co-opting local elites means that when the center weakens, these elites start raising militia and become independent states. In modern times, no local militia has the firepower to overcome a centralized military. Therefore, you don't get balkanization as long as the political leadership is united and willing to put down uprisings. Balkanization only happens when, in the case of the USSR, the central leadership loses faith and tells the army to stand aside and let it happen. The CCP has studied what happened in the USSR and they've been careful to make sure nobody in the government gets any funny ideas to let balkanization happen. I would be cautious about using history prior to the industrial revolution in any predictive capacity because the industrial revolution was a major shift in technology, economics, and societal organization. Yes, humans are still motivated by the same wants and fears, but many of the mechanisms that drove premodern events no longer exist today.
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magicsmoke 6y ago

China balkanized repeatedly during its 5000 year civilization because it was a premodern empire. Premodern empires don't have the same tools as modern states to enforce control down to the local level, so they run by co-opting local elites to do their work for them. However, co-opting local elites means that when the center weakens, these elites start raising militia and become independent states. In modern times, no local militia has the firepower to overcome a centralized military. Therefore, you don't get balkanization as long as the political leadership is united and willing to put down uprisings. Balkanization only happens when, in the case of the USSR, the central leadership loses faith and tells the army to stand aside and let it happen. The CCP has studied what happened in the USSR and they've been careful to make sure nobody in the government gets any funny ideas to let balkanization happen. I would be cautious about using history prior to the industrial revolution in any predictive capacity because the industrial revolution was a major shift in technology, economics, and societal organization. Yes, humans are still motivated by the same wants and fears, but many of the mechanisms that drove premodern events no longer exist today.

deleted 6y ago
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