I’ve posted this in replies but I want to put it as a top-level comment as well. Here’s a chart showing the effective transmission rate (R value) as a function

I’ve posted this in replies but I want to put it as a top-level comment as well. Here’s a chart showing the effective transmission rate (R value) as a function of “social connectivity” and “herd immunity”; https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860668342079490?s=21 https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860668342079490?s=21 I think what you can find in many examples across the globe is that without an innate geographical advantage or well-established cultural protocols, you cannot reduce “social connectivity” enough with an immunity of 0% to keep R below 1. For most peoples and places, it’s only through a combination of reducing social connectivity and increased immunity that R will ultimately fall below 1. Interestingly, both factors do not necessarily only move in one direction along the axis over time, and neither factor can be entirely controlled, even given an effective and widely produced vaccine. I can only pray that at least immunity is quite durable, lest we find ourselves in a repeating cycle of R cresting well above 1. At least until an effective vaccine is available, there is a massive cost to pay to push R downward, regardless of which axis you choose to push on. And the next time someone laments why did we lockdown if only to end up with so many cases, I think for most countries the only answer to get to R below 1 is actually that “you need both”.