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Average new cases per day has dropped from about 1200/day in late June to less than 300/day now. There's a slight uptick over the past week. https://91-divoc.c

Average new cases per day has dropped from about 1200/day in late June to less than 300/day now. There's a slight uptick over the past week. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=Sweden&show=25&y=highlight&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=left#countries https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countr... Downtrend in average deaths per day continues, currently at 6/day. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=Sweden&show=25&y=highlight&scale=linear&data=deaths-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=left#countries https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countr...

Majromax 6y ago
> There's a slight uptick over the past week. Any uptick at all is concerning. In fact, a flattening of the decline is concerning. The implied thesis in the linked article is that Sweden has reached a level of herd immunity due to widespread T-cell responses, and that life in the country continues as normal. If that is the case, then we would expect the infection curve in Sweden to follow a classic logistic model -- which is more or less symmetric. A rapid rise should be accompanied by a rapid fall. An asymmetric curve or one that has a "second wave" of any size tends to refute this theory. It would suggest that there was in fact some meaningful intervention that changed: either the initial infection was among a different group (i.e., what the US saw with infections first dominated by New York and then later by other states) or there was an effective policy response that has begun to wane.
- beagle3 6y ago
  Logistic model? Never saw anyone use that model. Do you have reference? What one should expect, afaik, is a Gompertz curve - the derivative of which, depending on parameters, often rises quickly and drops slowly. Michael Levitt calibrated a Gompertz model in April based on actions taken until that day, that predicted 5000 dead by 1-jul matched reality incredibly well - whereas the WHO/Ferguson model at the same time predicted 96,000 dead by 1-jul based on the same data.
- usrusr 6y ago
  > It would suggest that there was in fact some meaningful intervention that changed Annual lockdown month happened: https://hejsweden.com/en/swedish-holiday-dont-work-in-july/ https://hejsweden.com/en/swedish-holiday-dont-work-in-july/ Schools even close for ten weeks, and those will be over soon.
- wavepruner 6y ago
  Simple mathematical models are not appropriate for a situation as nuanced and multivariate as this one. Case count will oscillate up and down as restriction levels and individual comfort levels oscillate. As we approach herd immunity, the oscillations will dampen while following a downtrend. The cases/day downtrend is still very much intact, and while it could reverse, it is premature to be concerned.

Majromax 6y ago

> There's a slight uptick over the past week. Any uptick at all is concerning. In fact, a flattening of the decline is concerning. The implied thesis in the linked article is that Sweden has reached a level of herd immunity due to widespread T-cell responses, and that life in the country continues as normal. If that is the case, then we would expect the infection curve in Sweden to follow a classic logistic model -- which is more or less symmetric. A rapid rise should be accompanied by a rapid fall. An asymmetric curve or one that has a "second wave" of any size tends to refute this theory. It would suggest that there was in fact some meaningful intervention that changed: either the initial infection was among a different group (i.e., what the US saw with infections first dominated by New York and then later by other states) or there was an effective policy response that has begun to wane.

beagle3 6y ago
Logistic model? Never saw anyone use that model. Do you have reference? What one should expect, afaik, is a Gompertz curve - the derivative of which, depending on parameters, often rises quickly and drops slowly. Michael Levitt calibrated a Gompertz model in April based on actions taken until that day, that predicted 5000 dead by 1-jul matched reality incredibly well - whereas the WHO/Ferguson model at the same time predicted 96,000 dead by 1-jul based on the same data.
usrusr 6y ago
> It would suggest that there was in fact some meaningful intervention that changed Annual lockdown month happened: https://hejsweden.com/en/swedish-holiday-dont-work-in-july/ https://hejsweden.com/en/swedish-holiday-dont-work-in-july/ Schools even close for ten weeks, and those will be over soon.
wavepruner 6y ago
Simple mathematical models are not appropriate for a situation as nuanced and multivariate as this one. Case count will oscillate up and down as restriction levels and individual comfort levels oscillate. As we approach herd immunity, the oscillations will dampen while following a downtrend. The cases/day downtrend is still very much intact, and while it could reverse, it is premature to be concerned.