4 ms·

I don't care how big the underwater part is though. I am just using the case rate as a proxy for when states seem to hit their peak (yes, extremely handwavy).

by ghj 6y ago

I don't care how big the underwater part is though. I am just using the case rate as a proxy for when states seem to hit their peak (yes, extremely handwavy). As long at the confirmed cases is within some constant fraction of true number, it will be a decent proxy. This makes sense to me since some x% of the people who get infect will need hospitalization so they will get counted towards the statistics.

glofish 6y ago
> I don't care how big the underwater part is though You should care. The disease propagation is all about the "unseen" part. Otherwise the numbers are not comparable at all. Back then we caught 10% of cases, today perhaps 50% Thus you can't extrapolate from old numbers into the new. if anything you'd need to triple the numbers or more