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The UK, France, Spain, India and Australia who all shutdown (to varying degrees) are now experiencing significant upticks in cases. Even Vietnam is now fightin
by lsllc 6y ago
The UK, France, Spain, India and Australia who all shutdown (to varying degrees) are now experiencing significant upticks in cases. Even Vietnam is now fighting hard to tamp down a resurgence of C19 despite impressive initial measures to try to stop it.
You'd have to be completely sure that during your lockdown, the virus burned itself out inside each household. You'd have to have a really strict lockdown (e.g. troops on the streets, imprisonment for violation) to do that; I think maybe only Italy & China did anything close to that. And of course it would only take a handful of exceptions to re-ignite the virus (see Australia).
- giantDinosaur 6y agoIt's potentially the case in Melbourne, which is where the outbreak is essentially located, that the cases and potentially most of the outbreak are derived from extensive failures in the so called 'hotel quarantine' system. People have a misplaced belief that given a reasonably competent government you always get competence, which for a variety of reasons was not the case in this particular instance. I think a major planning failure is the result of optimism bias - i.e. that if we decide to do something we can actually do it well consistently.
- PaulDavisThe1st 6y agoNew Zealand apparently had police on the streets.
- lsllc 6y agoI think given the circumstances, NZ did the right thing and they did it with the support & cooperation of their citizens. They had the distinct advantages of being a remote island with very few cases to begin with and relatively little international traffic compared to most of the rest of the world which was easily shutdown. They had a really good chance to beat it, they took it and they succeeded -- but I think it was a pretty unique situation.
- beagle3 6y agoAnd if it takes a year or two to come under control in the rest of the world, they may have a fatigue and reintroduction. Too early in the game to label winners or losers.
- lsllc 6y agoYes, whilst normal life goes on now in NZ, they're stuck there and one of the main industries tourism is almost completely shuttered -- I think the fatigue will be economic.
- foogazi 6y agoHave not heard about India’s shut down I know the UK was going for herd immunity at first and then switched Spain did lockdown drastically once things got pretty bad My next question would be on Sweden’s case: is herd immunity real? Or as the virus spreads it reinfects ?
- mhh__ 6y agoIs there a citation for herd immunity and the UK? It was bandied around by the left wing press when they were looking for blood but I never saw any concrete evidence beyond it apparently being mentioned in passing.
- lsllc 6y agohttps://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/uk-backed-off-on-herd-immunity-to-beat-coronavirus-we-need-it/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/uk-backed...
- lsllc 6y agoFor India, it started back in March. It seems it was quite strict, there are youtube videos of violators getting beaten by the police (which may just have been isolated incidents). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_lockdown_in_India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_lockdown_in_... However, since they opened back up, they've seen a fairly large resurgence in cases: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/08/07/900112972/indias-coronavirus-cases-top-2-million-more-than-62-000-reported-in-one-day https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0...