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> We're probably looking at end of 2021 for enough vaccinations to happen for things to go back to "normal". In my eyes, that is the best case scenario.
by Marsymars 6y ago
> We're probably looking at end of 2021 for enough vaccinations to happen for things to go back to "normal".
In my eyes, that is the best case scenario.
- refurb 6y agoYeah, you're most likely right. If we have a couple vaccines fail in phase 3, add another 6 months. And there is a chance it's another year before we have a somewhat effective vaccine. That pushes out herd immunity to late 2022. The positive thing is there a lot of vaccine in development. I feel confident we'll find one that's at least somewhat effective.
- usrusr 6y agoBut vaccines don't just pass or fail: likely outcomes include a lot of middle ground with partial protection or side effects that are only prohibitive for some groups (mostly age groups). Stopping fractions of infections will make it possible to lift more and more social interventions while maintaining R <= 1 suppression.