3 ms·
> 1 out of 200 dying? try around 8% in Spain and Italy... You have conflated the CFR and IFR, and are thereby spreading gross misinformation. From the article:
by tripletao 6y ago
> 1 out of 200 dying? try around 8% in Spain and Italy...
You have conflated the CFR and IFR, and are thereby spreading gross misinformation. From the article:
> And remember, the risk of dying is at the very most 1 in 200 if you actually do get infected.
They're talking about the risk of dying "if you actually do get infected" (i.e., IFR), not the risk of dying if you get infected and test positive (i.e., CFR). Most people infected suffer mild enough symptoms that they don't seek a test, so the CFR is much higher than the IFR. This is especially true during severe outbreaks, where people with mild symptoms are explicitly encouraged to just stay home until they get better (or worse) to avoid further stressing the medical system.
A recent meta-analysis estimates the IFR around 0.7%[1], a little higher than the Swedish doctor's numbers but pretty close. The exact number will vary dramatically with the age structure of the population, since the IFR is >100x for old people vs. young.
1. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v4.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v...