4 ms·

the $600/month just ran out, and now they are returning. But its been months. plague pit? risking your life? that's pretty dramatic. They're not mid 90s LA inn

the $600/month just ran out, and now they are returning. But its been months. plague pit? risking your life? that's pretty dramatic. They're not mid 90s LA inner city police officers. They're not 1900s sky scraper metal workers. The drive to work is about as risky as the work itself. Many of these businesses will die (if they haven't already), and these people will have no jobs to go back to...

paulmd 6y ago
The unemployment boost isn't going to fix the economy. Unemployment only distorts the economy by competing for labor if we're at full economic output, which we're not. The economy is collapsing at a 33% annualized rate, the fastest in recorded economic history. You're looking at a crashing economy and suggesting that the real problem is the only brace still propping it up, and suggesting that we knock it out. Many of these businesses are going to die regardless, because of the failed pandemic response, the failure to enact a sufficient degree of stimulus, and because these businesses are no longer viable with an ongoing pandemic. And yes, I said plague pit. How in the world do you think it's reasonable for an employee that is not provided with any health insurance (or a bronze plan or whatever) to risk an infection that can stick you with a $1.1m bill, for $7.50 an hour? Employees are, shall we say, not going to respond to that economic incentive, that's not a reasonable trade from any perspective. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/breaking-down-this-miracle-covid-19-survivors-11-million-hospital-bill-2020-06-16 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/breaking-down-this-miracle... Instead, they will stay at home, and 33% of renters are going to miss their payment this month, just as the article says. As they said in 2008: if you don't pay your mortgage this month, you have a problem. If 33% of people don't pay their mortgage this month... the bank has a problem. The reality is that businesses that require interfacing with the public are going to see a downturn in customers no matter what, and are going to have to start paying for their employees' health care, no matter what. You can't expect people to take on a near-certainty of an extraordinarily expensive hospital stay for $7.50 per hour. People won't do that, and customers aren't coming into the business at the same rate they used to anyway. Those businesses are walking dead and forcing employees to accept sub-market wages to get them back to work won't help that.
- abfan1127 6y ago
  I agree the boost isn't going to fix the economy and that it distorts it. I also agree that the crashing economy has real problems well beyond this boost. I agree these businesses will die. I agree the response was wrong. I think the stimulus was the wrong way to go. The drive to work can get you a $500k doctor bill, and at similar risks for Covid $500k doctor bill. Both of which these demographics will not pay at all. They will either just leave it in collections or use bankruptcy to eliminate it.
  - nitrogen 6y ago
    Getting in a car accident doesn't risk causing exponentially increasing car accidents in your family and community though.
  - paulmd 6y ago
    Your argument is "people tolerate some risk, therefore they will tolerate a hugely increased amount of risk at the same clearance price". That's not how the market works. It's how business owners paying minimum wage want the market to work, but it's not how it does. Shit, a lot of businesses aren't even trying to mitigate the risks, not providing PPE, etc - they just expect minimum-wage workers to absorb all that risk and cost if they don't want to die.
    - abfan1127 6y ago
      That's not my argument at all. I agree with you that some businesses are trying to "do as they did" and that may not work in the new workplace. However, they aren't competing in a marketplace when the alternative is "not work and get paid".
  - adamsea 6y ago
    1. The drive to work is a known risk. Much is still unknown about Covid-19 plus it is novel and (legitimately) scary. 2. It's not just you, you could infect your friends and family and children. 3. If someone actually compared the actual odds (i.e. real numbers) of getting in a card accident with getting Covid-19 working in one of these public-facing jobs we are discussing, under current conditions, then we'd be able to tell if the comparison you're proposing is reasonable or not.

paulmd 6y ago

The unemployment boost isn't going to fix the economy. Unemployment only distorts the economy by competing for labor if we're at full economic output, which we're not. The economy is collapsing at a 33% annualized rate, the fastest in recorded economic history. You're looking at a crashing economy and suggesting that the real problem is the only brace still propping it up, and suggesting that we knock it out. Many of these businesses are going to die regardless, because of the failed pandemic response, the failure to enact a sufficient degree of stimulus, and because these businesses are no longer viable with an ongoing pandemic. And yes, I said plague pit. How in the world do you think it's reasonable for an employee that is not provided with any health insurance (or a bronze plan or whatever) to risk an infection that can stick you with a $1.1m bill, for $7.50 an hour? Employees are, shall we say, not going to respond to that economic incentive, that's not a reasonable trade from any perspective. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/breaking-down-this-miracle-covid-19-survivors-11-million-hospital-bill-2020-06-16 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/breaking-down-this-miracle... Instead, they will stay at home, and 33% of renters are going to miss their payment this month, just as the article says. As they said in 2008: if you don't pay your mortgage this month, you have a problem. If 33% of people don't pay their mortgage this month... the bank has a problem. The reality is that businesses that require interfacing with the public are going to see a downturn in customers no matter what, and are going to have to start paying for their employees' health care, no matter what. You can't expect people to take on a near-certainty of an extraordinarily expensive hospital stay for $7.50 per hour. People won't do that, and customers aren't coming into the business at the same rate they used to anyway. Those businesses are walking dead and forcing employees to accept sub-market wages to get them back to work won't help that.

abfan1127 6y ago
I agree the boost isn't going to fix the economy and that it distorts it. I also agree that the crashing economy has real problems well beyond this boost. I agree these businesses will die. I agree the response was wrong. I think the stimulus was the wrong way to go. The drive to work can get you a $500k doctor bill, and at similar risks for Covid $500k doctor bill. Both of which these demographics will not pay at all. They will either just leave it in collections or use bankruptcy to eliminate it.
- nitrogen 6y ago
  Getting in a car accident doesn't risk causing exponentially increasing car accidents in your family and community though.
- paulmd 6y ago
  Your argument is "people tolerate some risk, therefore they will tolerate a hugely increased amount of risk at the same clearance price". That's not how the market works. It's how business owners paying minimum wage want the market to work, but it's not how it does. Shit, a lot of businesses aren't even trying to mitigate the risks, not providing PPE, etc - they just expect minimum-wage workers to absorb all that risk and cost if they don't want to die.
  - abfan1127 6y ago
    That's not my argument at all. I agree with you that some businesses are trying to "do as they did" and that may not work in the new workplace. However, they aren't competing in a marketplace when the alternative is "not work and get paid".
- adamsea 6y ago
  1. The drive to work is a known risk. Much is still unknown about Covid-19 plus it is novel and (legitimately) scary. 2. It's not just you, you could infect your friends and family and children. 3. If someone actually compared the actual odds (i.e. real numbers) of getting in a card accident with getting Covid-19 working in one of these public-facing jobs we are discussing, under current conditions, then we'd be able to tell if the comparison you're proposing is reasonable or not.