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I highly doubt China has more levers then the US when it comes to a trade war. China can't feed itself past subsistence level without imports. https://www.bloo

I highly doubt China has more levers then the US when it comes to a trade war. China can't feed itself past subsistence level without imports. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-feeding-china/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-feeding-china/ China runs on oil just like every other modern economy, and they have pitiful amounts locally. They are the largest importer in the world and they absolutely need it to keep flowing. https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2019/10/17/china-is-the-worlds-largest-oil--gas-importer/#687831345441 https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2019/10/17/china-i... The US can feed itself domestically, and we can supply our own energy domestically. All we have to do is no longer put merchants heading toward China under the US navies protection and the CCP will be in serious trouble very quickly. Note - I'm not even saying we have to attack them, we just stop responding to any requests for help from them and let the world know. China relies on the US enforced world order to survive in its current form. The US relies on China for convenience, not for survival. Would it be wise to do what I just said? I don't know, and I'm not advocating for it, I just find it funny when people say China would so obviously win a trade war when they are definitely in the worse position at a fundamental level.

jdietrich 6y ago
>China can't feed itself... China runs on oil That's only a problem if the rest of the world sides with the US in a US-China trade dispute. There are plenty of net exporters of oil and food who would be very happy to sell to China and would be rather pleased to see the US get a bloody nose. >All we have to do is no longer put merchants heading toward China under the US navies protection and the CCP will be in serious trouble very quickly. China has a large, modern and highly capable navy. They are perfectly able to protect their own shipping against piracy or any state-level actor that would be insane enough to start a naval war. In the event of a direct conflict, the American navy is largely defenceless against the Chinese ASBM capability. The US relies on China for convenience, not for survival. US hospitals would rapidly degrade to third-world conditions without imports of Chinese-made supplies and materials. COVID-19 has revealed the fragility of global supply chains and the position of China as a manufacturing superpower. If you need a sufficiently large quantity of pretty much anything made, you don't have many options outside of China - doubly so if you need it in a hurry. If China decides to tighten the noose on American consumers, you're going to immediately see severe shortages of even the most basic goods. A total trade war between China and the US would of course have a catastrophic impact on US export revenues because of American reliance on outsourcing - US sanctions on Huawei have had a significant but manageable impact on their smartphone business, but Chinese sanctions on Apple would be catastrophic.
- will4274 6y ago
  > China has a large, modern and highly capable navy. They are perfectly able to protect their own shipping against piracy or any state-level actor that would be insane enough to start a naval war. In the event of a direct conflict, the American navy is largely defenceless against the Chinese ASBM capability. Lmao. The US Navy has roughly 3x the strength of all the other navies in the world combined. If the US and China went to war, the US would control the seas in about a month.
  - mastevb 6y ago
    > the US would control the seas in about a month. Lmao. Is this another "home by Christmas"?
  - jdietrich 6y ago
    America has a lot of very expensive but not necessarily useful ships (see the Zumwalt-class clusterfudge). China has an inexpensive anti-ship ballistic missile system that can sink anything in the Pacific. America's Aegis system might stop some ASBMs some of the time with a favourable wind. The prediction that "of course America will win this war easily, look at all the kit we have" does not have a good track record. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/dec/27/china-deploying-carrier-sinking-ballistic-missile/ https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/dec/27/china-deplo...
    - cthalupa 6y ago
      There's a few things here. First and foremost: Any argument we make is based on unclassified publicly known details related to the technological capabilities of both countries. This is an uninformed and untenable position to be making strong arguments from. Two: There's not a lot of evidence the ASBMs can actually hit moving targets. There are a lot of impressive claims on the ASBM and ASCM front, but we have seen impressive claims from Russia and China on prior weapons that have not panned out in reality. Everyone postures about having a better hand than they actually do. Tree: There's a lot of strategies we can employ besides Aegis. The US Navy has countered similar threats before, and can likely do so again. This Congressional Research Service report on Chinese naval modernization is an interesting read in general, but has an appendix specifically discussing ASBMs: https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20191220_RL33153_d765d52dedca23a23b578d2e8973663ea169eaff.html#_Ref18055675 https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20191220_RL33153_d765d5...
simonebrunozzi 6y ago
Don't forget coal [0]: "Coal remains the foundation of the Chinese energy system, covering close to 70 percent of the country's primary energy needs and representing 80 percent of the fuel used in electricity generation" [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_China
all_usernames 6y ago
> The US can feed itself domestically ...for about 20 more years, if soil quality and climate predictions are accurate.
- jfim 6y ago
  Out of curiosity, do you have links to more information about this?
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
beaunative 6y ago
China can feed itself. It doesn't have to be beyond subsistence level. China runs like every other country on oil, but a large part of that demand for oil is to produce for the rest of the world. You need to calculate the actual domestic demand for oil and related products rather than total demand. The US can supply its energy domestically, but what if the US have to reopen the factories once closed to make other products? Will the oil be fluent? Oil isn't just the thing you put in your car. You'd be surprised how many of our modern products need oil (plastic, fabric etc). Of course, those statements are made under the same assumption that there are only China and US in the world, or that the whole world go in to isolationist status. I'd rather not make any argument here, but to suggest somehow China's continued survival depended upon the global market while the US's doesn't is nothing more than an illusion.

jdietrich 6y ago

>China can't feed itself... China runs on oil That's only a problem if the rest of the world sides with the US in a US-China trade dispute. There are plenty of net exporters of oil and food who would be very happy to sell to China and would be rather pleased to see the US get a bloody nose. >All we have to do is no longer put merchants heading toward China under the US navies protection and the CCP will be in serious trouble very quickly. China has a large, modern and highly capable navy. They are perfectly able to protect their own shipping against piracy or any state-level actor that would be insane enough to start a naval war. In the event of a direct conflict, the American navy is largely defenceless against the Chinese ASBM capability. The US relies on China for convenience, not for survival. US hospitals would rapidly degrade to third-world conditions without imports of Chinese-made supplies and materials. COVID-19 has revealed the fragility of global supply chains and the position of China as a manufacturing superpower. If you need a sufficiently large quantity of pretty much anything made, you don't have many options outside of China - doubly so if you need it in a hurry. If China decides to tighten the noose on American consumers, you're going to immediately see severe shortages of even the most basic goods. A total trade war between China and the US would of course have a catastrophic impact on US export revenues because of American reliance on outsourcing - US sanctions on Huawei have had a significant but manageable impact on their smartphone business, but Chinese sanctions on Apple would be catastrophic.

will4274 6y ago
> China has a large, modern and highly capable navy. They are perfectly able to protect their own shipping against piracy or any state-level actor that would be insane enough to start a naval war. In the event of a direct conflict, the American navy is largely defenceless against the Chinese ASBM capability. Lmao. The US Navy has roughly 3x the strength of all the other navies in the world combined. If the US and China went to war, the US would control the seas in about a month.
- mastevb 6y ago
  > the US would control the seas in about a month. Lmao. Is this another "home by Christmas"?
- jdietrich 6y ago
  America has a lot of very expensive but not necessarily useful ships (see the Zumwalt-class clusterfudge). China has an inexpensive anti-ship ballistic missile system that can sink anything in the Pacific. America's Aegis system might stop some ASBMs some of the time with a favourable wind. The prediction that "of course America will win this war easily, look at all the kit we have" does not have a good track record. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/dec/27/china-deploying-carrier-sinking-ballistic-missile/ https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/dec/27/china-deplo...
  - cthalupa 6y ago
    There's a few things here. First and foremost: Any argument we make is based on unclassified publicly known details related to the technological capabilities of both countries. This is an uninformed and untenable position to be making strong arguments from. Two: There's not a lot of evidence the ASBMs can actually hit moving targets. There are a lot of impressive claims on the ASBM and ASCM front, but we have seen impressive claims from Russia and China on prior weapons that have not panned out in reality. Everyone postures about having a better hand than they actually do. Tree: There's a lot of strategies we can employ besides Aegis. The US Navy has countered similar threats before, and can likely do so again. This Congressional Research Service report on Chinese naval modernization is an interesting read in general, but has an appendix specifically discussing ASBMs: https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20191220_RL33153_d765d52dedca23a23b578d2e8973663ea169eaff.html#_Ref18055675 https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20191220_RL33153_d765d5...

simonebrunozzi 6y ago

Don't forget coal [0]: "Coal remains the foundation of the Chinese energy system, covering close to 70 percent of the country's primary energy needs and representing 80 percent of the fuel used in electricity generation" [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_China

all_usernames 6y ago

> The US can feed itself domestically ...for about 20 more years, if soil quality and climate predictions are accurate.

jfim 6y ago
Out of curiosity, do you have links to more information about this?

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

beaunative 6y ago

China can feed itself. It doesn't have to be beyond subsistence level. China runs like every other country on oil, but a large part of that demand for oil is to produce for the rest of the world. You need to calculate the actual domestic demand for oil and related products rather than total demand. The US can supply its energy domestically, but what if the US have to reopen the factories once closed to make other products? Will the oil be fluent? Oil isn't just the thing you put in your car. You'd be surprised how many of our modern products need oil (plastic, fabric etc). Of course, those statements are made under the same assumption that there are only China and US in the world, or that the whole world go in to isolationist status. I'd rather not make any argument here, but to suggest somehow China's continued survival depended upon the global market while the US's doesn't is nothing more than an illusion.