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This is super naive. China has a huge military, is much closer to RoC, and has absolute popular support that RoC is already a province of China. Whereas the US

This is super naive. China has a huge military, is much closer to RoC, and has absolute popular support that RoC is already a province of China. Whereas the US can barely muster popular support for wearing masks. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/06/china-deploys-amphibious-weapons-eastern-coast-tensions-taiwan/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/06/china-deploys-am...

mytailorisrich 6y ago
I'm not sure how what I wrote is 'super naive'... It is obvious that the US would have a problem if the mainland took over Taiwan. But short of that happening they don't because Taiwan is reliant on them.
katbyte 6y ago
What support that Taiwan is part of China outside China? Everyone I’ve ever talked to about it considers Taiwan independence and under threat from China.
FooBarWidget 6y ago
US military presence is sort of a paradox for Taiwan. It both protects Taiwan, as well threatens it, in the sense that China feels threatened by the US military and thus is incentivized to militarize out of self-defense. Taiwan's geography makes it a natural fortress, and even Taiwan's own military can defend the island pretty well entirely on its own. A mainland invasion will be very, very expensive, so it won't happen that easily. Economically, Taiwan is in decline. China basically doesn't need Taiwan for economic reasons. So the only reason to invade Taiwan, would be to appeal to the nationalist sentiment of reunification. But the chances of that happening is less than what many think, both because of the military cost, and because the CCP are actually moderates; there are many Chinese people who are far more radical, and if it's up to them then they would have launched an invasion a decade ago. This probably sounds unbelievable, or even propagandistic, to many people here on HN. You don't have to take my word for it. See Kishore Mahbubani, ex-Singapore diplomat & ex-head of UN Security Council, who wrote a book on China.
- vxNsr 6y ago
  This is obviously false on its face. China would have invaded Taiwan from the get for if not for the US. And blaming china’s self defense fears on their building up the military is just communist apologist nonsense
  - FooBarWidget 6y ago
    Based on what sources do you make your claims, and what makes you so sure Mahbubani is wrong? Also, regarding "communist"... they're not really communist, haven't been for a long time now. 80% of the businesses in China are privately owned, and people have private property. Though socialist elements still exist; my wife's grandparents recently received new houses from the government, as reimbursement for tearing down their old houses (which were in much worse shape than the new ones) for redeveloping the land. As Mahbubani says, the CCP is more accurately described as the Chinese Civilization Party.
    - aww_dang 6y ago
      Yes, 'private' enterprises that are required to have party members in positions of control. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-congress-companies/exclusive-in-china-the-partys-push-for-influence-inside-foreign-firms-stirs-fears-idUSKCN1B40JU https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-congress-companies/...
      - FooBarWidget 6y ago
        The larger ones do. Smaller ones don't. And for sure, houses are not owned by the government. The land is, although that is not a uniquely communist thing: in Amsterdam, all land is owned by the city government. But that really has got nothing to do with ownership. It has got to do with national security, and ensuring that the company does not conflict with public interests. Whether you agree with such reasons is another matter: the point is that it's not about ownership.
        6y ago

mytailorisrich 6y ago

I'm not sure how what I wrote is 'super naive'... It is obvious that the US would have a problem if the mainland took over Taiwan. But short of that happening they don't because Taiwan is reliant on them.

katbyte 6y ago

What support that Taiwan is part of China outside China? Everyone I’ve ever talked to about it considers Taiwan independence and under threat from China.

FooBarWidget 6y ago

US military presence is sort of a paradox for Taiwan. It both protects Taiwan, as well threatens it, in the sense that China feels threatened by the US military and thus is incentivized to militarize out of self-defense. Taiwan's geography makes it a natural fortress, and even Taiwan's own military can defend the island pretty well entirely on its own. A mainland invasion will be very, very expensive, so it won't happen that easily. Economically, Taiwan is in decline. China basically doesn't need Taiwan for economic reasons. So the only reason to invade Taiwan, would be to appeal to the nationalist sentiment of reunification. But the chances of that happening is less than what many think, both because of the military cost, and because the CCP are actually moderates; there are many Chinese people who are far more radical, and if it's up to them then they would have launched an invasion a decade ago. This probably sounds unbelievable, or even propagandistic, to many people here on HN. You don't have to take my word for it. See Kishore Mahbubani, ex-Singapore diplomat & ex-head of UN Security Council, who wrote a book on China.

vxNsr 6y ago
This is obviously false on its face. China would have invaded Taiwan from the get for if not for the US. And blaming china’s self defense fears on their building up the military is just communist apologist nonsense
- FooBarWidget 6y ago
  Based on what sources do you make your claims, and what makes you so sure Mahbubani is wrong? Also, regarding "communist"... they're not really communist, haven't been for a long time now. 80% of the businesses in China are privately owned, and people have private property. Though socialist elements still exist; my wife's grandparents recently received new houses from the government, as reimbursement for tearing down their old houses (which were in much worse shape than the new ones) for redeveloping the land. As Mahbubani says, the CCP is more accurately described as the Chinese Civilization Party.
  - aww_dang 6y ago
    Yes, 'private' enterprises that are required to have party members in positions of control. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-congress-companies/exclusive-in-china-the-partys-push-for-influence-inside-foreign-firms-stirs-fears-idUSKCN1B40JU https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-congress-companies/...
    - FooBarWidget 6y ago
      The larger ones do. Smaller ones don't. And for sure, houses are not owned by the government. The land is, although that is not a uniquely communist thing: in Amsterdam, all land is owned by the city government. But that really has got nothing to do with ownership. It has got to do with national security, and ensuring that the company does not conflict with public interests. Whether you agree with such reasons is another matter: the point is that it's not about ownership.
      - 6y ago