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Look up Fujian Jinhua plant 2018. Truth is US has been sanctioning and using CFIUS to undermine Chinese IC for a while now. Many blocked acquisitions under Obam

Look up Fujian Jinhua plant 2018. Truth is US has been sanctioning and using CFIUS to undermine Chinese IC for a while now. Many blocked acquisitions under Obama. Relationship was just less acrimonious and less public. I suspect even Nvidia's ARM ambitions is part of plan to undermine Chinese IC efforts. Like how William Barr floated idea to get CISCO to buy controlling share in SE or Nokia to rival Huawei 5G. That said, TSMC is too successful for it's own good. Once their Arizona plant opens on US tax dime, Taiwan will loose security guarantor. I suspect they'll delay for as long as they can. SMIC is basically sufficient to make IC for Chinese military use in any case. The main, and huge problem, is being commercially competitive.

Steltek 6y ago
Interesting theory re Arizona meaning Taiwan loses its advantage. Although no one can ascribe too much (or really any) foresight to the current US admin, I have to imagine there's a domino theory w.r.t. to Taiwan and the SCS region. Ceding China's control (military, economic, or otherwise) of Taiwan would panic every other independent nation in the region into striking a good deal with China to hopefully maintain their autonomy. Ugh. The West has had the tail wagging the dog for so long. Arrogant transnational corporations and the rich think they can control China like everything else. It's the same arrogance on display with coronavirus: they play by very different rules and don't care who you are.
- dirtyid 6y ago
  At least with semi there's continuity. And some of the China-hawks in the admin, though cray cray and warmongering, are also pragmatic. i.e. I think Trump banned TikTok out of spite, but probably Pompeo banned WeChat... as if Trump knows what WeChat is. And probably other hawks pushed for TikTok acquisition, and Trump poison pilled with with extortion to US treasury. A lot of the escalations are... unprecedented, kind of insane, but also calibrated enough that China can tit-for-tat. Whereas Trump would just be insane. By all accounts TSMC didn't want to open plant in US. They were denying it for months / weeks / days before. And TSMC has invested so much capex in new Taiwan plants that it makes no fiscal sense for them to open low capacity plant in US unless heavily subsidized, and US wouldn't subsidize unless it was for MIC. As for Taiwan's future, really depends on how election goes. I'm skeptical China will allow TSMC / Taiwan to cooperate with US unfettered in semi. Right now there's mediatek buffering Huawei. And other Chinese brands can still sell phones with qualcomm. But if US manage to coerce all Taiwanese semi from working with China... well glitter bombs are going to blow up in Taiwanese fabs before real bombs. I think it's semi is a much more dangerous situation than most people realize. If Trumps over November, there's a few years before Arizonal TSMC comes online to form a useful Chinese semi containment strategy. Or TSMC will delay the play until after Trump term 2. Otherwise, stock up on graphics cards now.

Steltek 6y ago

Interesting theory re Arizona meaning Taiwan loses its advantage. Although no one can ascribe too much (or really any) foresight to the current US admin, I have to imagine there's a domino theory w.r.t. to Taiwan and the SCS region. Ceding China's control (military, economic, or otherwise) of Taiwan would panic every other independent nation in the region into striking a good deal with China to hopefully maintain their autonomy. Ugh. The West has had the tail wagging the dog for so long. Arrogant transnational corporations and the rich think they can control China like everything else. It's the same arrogance on display with coronavirus: they play by very different rules and don't care who you are.

dirtyid 6y ago
At least with semi there's continuity. And some of the China-hawks in the admin, though cray cray and warmongering, are also pragmatic. i.e. I think Trump banned TikTok out of spite, but probably Pompeo banned WeChat... as if Trump knows what WeChat is. And probably other hawks pushed for TikTok acquisition, and Trump poison pilled with with extortion to US treasury. A lot of the escalations are... unprecedented, kind of insane, but also calibrated enough that China can tit-for-tat. Whereas Trump would just be insane. By all accounts TSMC didn't want to open plant in US. They were denying it for months / weeks / days before. And TSMC has invested so much capex in new Taiwan plants that it makes no fiscal sense for them to open low capacity plant in US unless heavily subsidized, and US wouldn't subsidize unless it was for MIC. As for Taiwan's future, really depends on how election goes. I'm skeptical China will allow TSMC / Taiwan to cooperate with US unfettered in semi. Right now there's mediatek buffering Huawei. And other Chinese brands can still sell phones with qualcomm. But if US manage to coerce all Taiwanese semi from working with China... well glitter bombs are going to blow up in Taiwanese fabs before real bombs. I think it's semi is a much more dangerous situation than most people realize. If Trumps over November, there's a few years before Arizonal TSMC comes online to form a useful Chinese semi containment strategy. Or TSMC will delay the play until after Trump term 2. Otherwise, stock up on graphics cards now.