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> One puzzling aspect of the decline is that it seems to be confined to Europe and the United States [...] One leading hypothesis for the decline in the United

> One puzzling aspect of the decline is that it seems to be confined to Europe and the United States [...] One leading hypothesis for the decline in the United States and Europe is improved control of cardiovascular risk factors, especially blood pressure and cholesterol. My completely-devoid-of-evidence hypothesis is that over the past 25 years, increased globalization has reduced the number of menial jobs/tasks in those two continents, thereby increasing overall day-to-day mental exercise. This coupled with the rise of the internet gives citizens a needed mental outlet. The article mentions improved education as a possible reason, but not in the form of late-age mental exercise.

SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
Here's labour statistics for employment over the last 20 years[1] - I don't know if the changes are marked enough to support your theory, but I thought I'd give you some evidence to work with. https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-levels-by-industry.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-l... It's possible I'm not looking far enough back either - the cultural shifts that lead to this would have probably been at the point during these now senior citizens mid careers, not late - you don't usually get into a new industry when you're 55.
melling 6y ago
Claude Shannon had Alzheimer’s so I’m not sure if being really smart with a playful mind protects you. “Shannon developed Alzheimer's disease and spent the last few years of his life in a nursing home; he died in 2001”
- jrott 6y ago
  It wouldn't protect you completely but doing intellectually stimulating things is supposed to reduce your risk of Alzheimer's.
  - Barrin92 6y ago
    I've always wondered if this simply isn't a case of having the causality wrong, that is to say people in old age who don't have alzheimer symptoms are more intellectually engaged.
    - phaemon 6y ago
      Well today is your lucky day, because you can cease your wondering! The answer is "no". In fact, any question you have that relies on thousands of doctors and professors in the field missing something obvious is always "no" (cf "never a compiler error").
      - perl4ever 6y ago
        It's not clear to me precisely what you are intending to communicate. Are you scoffing at the idea that Alzheimer's symptoms could reduce intellectual engagement? Or just at the idea that experts could have missed it in favor of the opposite relationship?
        phaemon 6y ago
        The latter of course. Everyone who has given more than 10 seconds of thought to the issue has considered the opposite relationship because it's so obvious.
  - poulsbohemian 6y ago
    There's likely benefit in staying mentally sharp, but this is true at any age. I'm just a lay person, not a clinician or researcher, but it seems fairly evident to me that Alzheimer's and similar diseases are the result of: -- Genetics -- Environment -- Lifestyle So while doing puzzles or learning a second language might be good for us overall and ward off some forms of dementia, it doesn't feel like it's going to make much difference in whether we get Alzheimers (or Parkinsons, or Lewy-Body, etc).
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
s_dev 6y ago
Austrailia and Canada still have huge mining operations that aren't really as existent in Europe or the US. Perhaps this is a factor.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
omarhaneef 6y ago
I think they used to believe that mental exercises might slow down mental decline -- physical exercise certainly does -- but new evidence suggests this may not be the case: https://www.nhs.uk/news/older-people/puzzle-solving-doesnt-slow-down-mental-decline-older-people/ https://www.nhs.uk/news/older-people/puzzle-solving-doesnt-s...
theptip 6y ago
The exception to explain would seem to be developed Asian countries. Why does Japan not see a similar decrease? They have a bunch of very significant societal and dietary differences that already contribute to high longevity. But you could compare “menial tasks” and see if that can explain some of the shift too. I’m guessing you’d see that Japan’s levels of menial tasks shifted in the same way as the western countries, but they didn’t see a similar change in dementia. That’s just based on my mental mode of effects here, would love to see some more analysis though.
hammock 6y ago
> One puzzling aspect of the decline is that it seems to be confined to Europe and the United States [...] One leading hypothesis for the decline in the United States and Europe is improved control of cardiovascular risk factors, especially blood pressure and cholesterol. We have blood pressure and cholesterol meds now that force these "factors" down, but is there evidence that it has reduced the rise in actual heart disease?
hwillis 6y ago
> My completely-devoid-of-evidence hypothesis is that over the past 25 years, increased globalization has reduced the number of menial jobs/tasks in those two continents, thereby increasing overall day-to-day mental exercise. This fails on a couple levels to explain the headline: 1. 25 years is a very short time for someone to have a health-altering period of employment and then get old enough to develop dementia. The overall population with dementia is much larger, so in order to see a 13% drop, the final <10 years of work before you retire would need to increase your risk of dementia by several times. 2. It does not make sense that those people who are within 25 years of dementia would be able to suddenly switch from a menial job to an intellectual job. I would guess it is very unlikely (<10%) over any time horizon; the western world switched from manual jobs to service jobs but it's very difficult for people in those two categories to return to school and get an intellectual job. 3. I would hazard to guess that manual jobs are more intellectually stimulating than most service jobs. Working in a factory, building houses etc. includes tons of little bits of arithmetic and coordination. Phone/computer jobs and working in a store is mostly standing around or doing mind-numbing makework. At the very least, there's not a huge difference between the two- besides physical work, which is also very beneficial against dementia.
- kodablah 6y ago
  Quick note, this is why I said "jobs/tasks" and mentioned the "internet". Globalization (among other factors) reduces thoughtless tasks too, not just jobs.

SketchySeaBeast 6y ago

Here's labour statistics for employment over the last 20 years[1] - I don't know if the changes are marked enough to support your theory, but I thought I'd give you some evidence to work with. https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-levels-by-industry.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-l... It's possible I'm not looking far enough back either - the cultural shifts that lead to this would have probably been at the point during these now senior citizens mid careers, not late - you don't usually get into a new industry when you're 55.

melling 6y ago

Claude Shannon had Alzheimer’s so I’m not sure if being really smart with a playful mind protects you. “Shannon developed Alzheimer's disease and spent the last few years of his life in a nursing home; he died in 2001”

jrott 6y ago
It wouldn't protect you completely but doing intellectually stimulating things is supposed to reduce your risk of Alzheimer's.
- Barrin92 6y ago
  I've always wondered if this simply isn't a case of having the causality wrong, that is to say people in old age who don't have alzheimer symptoms are more intellectually engaged.
  - phaemon 6y ago
    Well today is your lucky day, because you can cease your wondering! The answer is "no". In fact, any question you have that relies on thousands of doctors and professors in the field missing something obvious is always "no" (cf "never a compiler error").
    - perl4ever 6y ago
      It's not clear to me precisely what you are intending to communicate. Are you scoffing at the idea that Alzheimer's symptoms could reduce intellectual engagement? Or just at the idea that experts could have missed it in favor of the opposite relationship?
      - phaemon 6y ago
        The latter of course. Everyone who has given more than 10 seconds of thought to the issue has considered the opposite relationship because it's so obvious.
- poulsbohemian 6y ago
  There's likely benefit in staying mentally sharp, but this is true at any age. I'm just a lay person, not a clinician or researcher, but it seems fairly evident to me that Alzheimer's and similar diseases are the result of: -- Genetics -- Environment -- Lifestyle So while doing puzzles or learning a second language might be good for us overall and ward off some forms of dementia, it doesn't feel like it's going to make much difference in whether we get Alzheimers (or Parkinsons, or Lewy-Body, etc).
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

s_dev 6y ago

Austrailia and Canada still have huge mining operations that aren't really as existent in Europe or the US. Perhaps this is a factor.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

omarhaneef 6y ago

I think they used to believe that mental exercises might slow down mental decline -- physical exercise certainly does -- but new evidence suggests this may not be the case: https://www.nhs.uk/news/older-people/puzzle-solving-doesnt-slow-down-mental-decline-older-people/ https://www.nhs.uk/news/older-people/puzzle-solving-doesnt-s...

theptip 6y ago

The exception to explain would seem to be developed Asian countries. Why does Japan not see a similar decrease? They have a bunch of very significant societal and dietary differences that already contribute to high longevity. But you could compare “menial tasks” and see if that can explain some of the shift too. I’m guessing you’d see that Japan’s levels of menial tasks shifted in the same way as the western countries, but they didn’t see a similar change in dementia. That’s just based on my mental mode of effects here, would love to see some more analysis though.

hammock 6y ago

hwillis 6y ago

> My completely-devoid-of-evidence hypothesis is that over the past 25 years, increased globalization has reduced the number of menial jobs/tasks in those two continents, thereby increasing overall day-to-day mental exercise. This fails on a couple levels to explain the headline: 1. 25 years is a very short time for someone to have a health-altering period of employment and then get old enough to develop dementia. The overall population with dementia is much larger, so in order to see a 13% drop, the final <10 years of work before you retire would need to increase your risk of dementia by several times. 2. It does not make sense that those people who are within 25 years of dementia would be able to suddenly switch from a menial job to an intellectual job. I would guess it is very unlikely (<10%) over any time horizon; the western world switched from manual jobs to service jobs but it's very difficult for people in those two categories to return to school and get an intellectual job. 3. I would hazard to guess that manual jobs are more intellectually stimulating than most service jobs. Working in a factory, building houses etc. includes tons of little bits of arithmetic and coordination. Phone/computer jobs and working in a store is mostly standing around or doing mind-numbing makework. At the very least, there's not a huge difference between the two- besides physical work, which is also very beneficial against dementia.

kodablah 6y ago
Quick note, this is why I said "jobs/tasks" and mentioned the "internet". Globalization (among other factors) reduces thoughtless tasks too, not just jobs.