3 ms·

A plausible start of WWIII would be China seizing Taiwan in order to regain access to TSMC.

FooBarWidget 6y ago
I really doubt it. China has its own fabs, they're just a few generations behind (14nm). That "only" means their chips are not competitive in certain contexts (heat, power), not that they can't have chips at all. They're investing heavily in research and development. It's just a matter of time before they catch up. There's no need to do something risky and expensive, like starting a war over Taiwan. And taking over Taiwan will cripple TSMC's ability to provide to anyone. The moment they invade Taiwan, 100% of its population becomes anti-China (right now a portion of Taiwanese are still sympathetic to the idea of reunification). TSMC employees will revolt and the island will turn into a perpetual guerilla war zone. How do you produce chips in such an environment? I still think WWIII could plausibly happen, just not because of TSMC.
- IndPhysiker 6y ago
  Agreed, but only to a point. Chinese foreign policy generally avoids taking sides in war in order to keep markets available, which has enabled them to remain out of major conflicts while the rest of the world throws money, resources, and lives away on endless wars. However, looking at the belt and road initiative that runs through Uighur peoples, they are showing they are willing to commit genocide to reach their long term expansionist goal. Combine that with their militarization of the south china sea, development of carrier technology, theft of stealth technology, and success of the thousand talents program and you have a power growing that only lacks the decision to resort to force. That said, don't discount the capacity for war over their long term goals of making China the sole superpower.
- MrBuddyCasino 6y ago
  Not to mention that Taiwan will trigger the explosive devices that they have embedded into infrastructure and manufacturing plants. China may coerce Taiwanese scientists, but won’t find a functioning chip fab to use.
  - molszanski 6y ago
    Hmm. Where can learn more about this deterrence measure?
    - MrBuddyCasino 6y ago
      If you expect a map with locations marked X, well good luck. This is just a long-standing rumor, as these things are obviously kept secret, but the fact that both west-germany and switzerland did this (we actually have hard evidence) to stop advancing soviet forces in the event of war makes this very credible.
      - molszanski 6y ago
        I don't expect any form of hard proof. I am curious about the subject and looking forward to any reading or viewing material
  - rasz 6y ago
    That makes blowing up TSMC remotely by hacking a better proposition - leaves all the players at a level playing field while maintaining plausible deniability.
robjan 6y ago
Seizing another territory for their knowledge / expertise /manufacturing capabilities would demonstrate weakness. I am pretty sure Beijing would rather avoid that.
- magicsmoke 6y ago
  More importantly, it's not even possible. In any war over Taiwan TSMC's fabs will be rigged with explosives and destroyed. Not to mention key personnel needed to run the fabs getting caught up in the crossfire.
hungryhobo 6y ago
i doubt it, TSMC still needs lithography machines from ASML (a Dutch company) to manufacture their chips. US has repeatedly prevented ASML from shipping latest EUV lithography machines to China, I can't imagine the US wouldn't cut off supplies to TSMC if Taiwan was invaded.

I really doubt it. China has its own fabs, they're just a few generations behind (14nm). That "only" means their chips are not competitive in certain contexts (heat, power), not that they can't have chips at all. They're investing heavily in research and development. It's just a matter of time before they catch up. There's no need to do something risky and expensive, like starting a war over Taiwan. And taking over Taiwan will cripple TSMC's ability to provide to anyone. The moment they invade Taiwan, 100% of its population becomes anti-China (right now a portion of Taiwanese are still sympathetic to the idea of reunification). TSMC employees will revolt and the island will turn into a perpetual guerilla war zone. How do you produce chips in such an environment? I still think WWIII could plausibly happen, just not because of TSMC.

IndPhysiker 6y ago
Agreed, but only to a point. Chinese foreign policy generally avoids taking sides in war in order to keep markets available, which has enabled them to remain out of major conflicts while the rest of the world throws money, resources, and lives away on endless wars. However, looking at the belt and road initiative that runs through Uighur peoples, they are showing they are willing to commit genocide to reach their long term expansionist goal. Combine that with their militarization of the south china sea, development of carrier technology, theft of stealth technology, and success of the thousand talents program and you have a power growing that only lacks the decision to resort to force. That said, don't discount the capacity for war over their long term goals of making China the sole superpower.
MrBuddyCasino 6y ago
Not to mention that Taiwan will trigger the explosive devices that they have embedded into infrastructure and manufacturing plants. China may coerce Taiwanese scientists, but won’t find a functioning chip fab to use.
- molszanski 6y ago
  Hmm. Where can learn more about this deterrence measure?
  - MrBuddyCasino 6y ago
    If you expect a map with locations marked X, well good luck. This is just a long-standing rumor, as these things are obviously kept secret, but the fact that both west-germany and switzerland did this (we actually have hard evidence) to stop advancing soviet forces in the event of war makes this very credible.
    - molszanski 6y ago
      I don't expect any form of hard proof. I am curious about the subject and looking forward to any reading or viewing material
- rasz 6y ago
  That makes blowing up TSMC remotely by hacking a better proposition - leaves all the players at a level playing field while maintaining plausible deniability.

robjan 6y ago

Seizing another territory for their knowledge / expertise /manufacturing capabilities would demonstrate weakness. I am pretty sure Beijing would rather avoid that.

magicsmoke 6y ago
More importantly, it's not even possible. In any war over Taiwan TSMC's fabs will be rigged with explosives and destroyed. Not to mention key personnel needed to run the fabs getting caught up in the crossfire.

hungryhobo 6y ago

i doubt it, TSMC still needs lithography machines from ASML (a Dutch company) to manufacture their chips. US has repeatedly prevented ASML from shipping latest EUV lithography machines to China, I can't imagine the US wouldn't cut off supplies to TSMC if Taiwan was invaded.