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The US lost that near-monopoly years ago. Broadly speaking, I think we're witnessing the birth of three distinct global powers. One is centered on the US, and
by donw 6y ago
The US lost that near-monopoly years ago.
Broadly speaking, I think we're witnessing the birth of three distinct global powers.
One is centered on the US, and consists (broadly) of Canada, Mexico, the rest of Latin America, the Commonwealth nations, Japan, Korea, Israel, and Taiwan.
An American civil war would destabilize this to a large degree, so we'll have to see if that plays out.
Edit, since people seem confused: This would be an absolute nightmare scenario, but it is in the realm of possibility, and would massively change international political structures.
Another is centered on Germany and France, and controls Europe, parts of Africa, and the Middle East.
Finally, we've got China, which will likely control a big chunk of Africa and Southeast Asia.
Russia is a tough one, but I see them siding with China or Europe.
Contested territory will include Taiwan, bits of the Middle East, and an escalation of the border disputes with Japan. Likely bits of eastern Europe, plus conflicts on the China/India border...
What a time to be alive.
Edit: Just because somebody says that something is a possibility doesn't mean that they want that thing to happen.
Me coming down with a case of COVID is a possibility. In fact, I'm operating under the assumption that I will be infected at some point, regardless of precautions (masks, hand-washing, stepping back from my competitive doorknob-licking career, etc.)
That doesn't mean I want a case of Horribly Shitty Virus With Not-Yet Well-Documented Complications.
I'm just prepared for the worst (as best as I can), and hoping for the best (because why not?)
- ejanus 6y agoWhy wishing them Civil war? Do you have real information that this is in the making? Or you are against America and wish her evil?
- taurath 6y agoRussia is much much much smaller, but they have a large mental footprint.
- wolframhempel 6y agoI feel this is a really solid summary of the world order for the coming decades. We're still in a cold war mindset that suggests there has to be US vs. X with X now increasingly being China), but in a globalized world we'll see a more fragmented landscape. The US seems to move towards the final stages of its dominance which leaves space for others, but this space can be filled by a multitude of interlinked competitors.
- peacefulhat 6y agoAmerican Civil War 2 is an impossible fantasy. You need regional divisions in the military, which we don't have. These new alliances don't make sense either.
- pjc50 6y agoAn impossible fantasy to be sure, but one which the second amendment people love to talk up at every opportunity.
- donw 6y agoNo, "American Civil War II" is an absolute nightmare scenario. I would go as far as to say we're in a cold one right now. I would not have imagined this possible four years ago, but now, given the level of division... yeah, it appears to be on the table. That's cause for fairly grave concern, by the way. Imagine that the election goes into a toss-up. Which it likely will. Both parties have been laying the groundwork to contest the election, between claims of "voter suppression" and "voter fraud". I don't think either team would accept anything other than an absolute landslide victory from the other side. And even then, maybe not. I could see the Western seaboard (plus Hawaii) seceding in the case of a Trump victory. In the case of a Biden victory, I'd expect years of domestic insurgency, which I'd still call a "civil war". Either way, I don't see any way out for the US right now that isn't outright ugly. I very, very much hope I'm wrong, of course, and that things calm down after November (regardless of who wins).
- peacefulhat 6y agoWhy, because of the protests? If the protests had the potential to overthrow the government by force, they would be met with bombs and bullets. Civil wars are fought by armies and the US military is completely unified behind the preservation of the US government.
- pjc50 6y agoYes, but in the event of a highly disputed election, which government? (I don't think all the stuff above is very likely, because I think the Trump hold on power is a lot shallower than most, but I do think there's going to be polling station violence in some places, continuing conflict between federal and state law enforcement, and a lot of lawsuits after the election contesting individual vote counts, far more so than Bush vs Gore. Especially over postal ballots.)
- boomboomsubban 6y ago>Another is centered on Germany and France, and controls Europe, parts of Africa, and the Middle East. These countries are trying to get Facebook to pay a regional tax, not rebelling against sixty years of NATO. I don't understand how you can consider them a distinct global power from the US, and I'm unclear what these non-contested regions you think are part of their base.
- orbifold 6y agoA German, French and Russian alliance is probably the winning move and was thwarted more than once by Anglo-Saxon intervention. Right now the US actively tries to sabotage the Nordstream 2 completion (https://www.dw.com/de/ist-nord-stream-2-noch-zu-retten/a-53829473 https://www.dw.com/de/ist-nord-stream-2-noch-zu-retten/a-538...), which would make Germany energy independent from US controlled Gas.
- donw 6y agoIs it bad that I read that as the "Nordstrom Completion", and was wondering why the Europeans needed more overpriced fashion items?
- ulfw 6y agoGermany hasn‘t needed US gas in a long time. There‘s plenty of LNG from Qatar and other nations on the market plus the existing pipelines for Russian gas through Ukraine etc. Only the US wants Germany to buy American gas because $$$
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- orbifold 6y agoQatar is a US protectorate, just as it was a British before (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Udeid_Air_Base https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Udeid_Air_Base). The British still maintain planes there. They have no independent means of survival. Most of the oil and gas is either in the US / British sphere of influence. The few exceptions (Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Lybia, Syria, Venezuela), Transit countries like Georgia, Ukraine. All were messed with in subtle and not so subtle ways
- ulfw 6y agoThat is very nice. Still doesn't fill the US coffers when gas is being bought there.
- modo_mario 6y ago
- 9nGQluzmnq3M 6y agoYou've completely forgotten India, which is really the one power that can credibly stand up to China on its own.
- donw 6y agoPart of the Commonwealth, no?
- modo_mario 6y agoWhilst relations are better it had itself set up as a 3rd faction and even being closer to the soviets during the cold war due to US alliance with Pakistan. Now Pakistan has largely shifted into China's sphere of influence and the US has slowly turned it's attention towards China that might change but i don't expect it to be in a way as subservient as other commonwealth nations like Australia.
- LoSboccacc 6y agowhere's India in all that?
- donw 6y agoPart of the Commonwealth, no?
- LoSboccacc 6y agoyeah but with its own problems and a location that would make it think more carefully about escalating antagonizing China to military intervention
- 082349872349872 6y agoCommonwealth implies Oceania. (but does pakistan stay in, or go with Eastasia?) For both Orwellian and cultural reasons, I could easily see russia modifying some laws and joining Eurasia.
- michaelscott 6y agoNot in modern times no. It gained complete independence from Britain in the 50s I think? Unless you're referring to all countries that were at one time controlled by the British Empire, which I think is a little out of touch with how much those countries have diverged from one another politically since then.
- donw 6y agohttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Nations https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Nations
- michaelscott 6y agoAh I thought you were referring to the Commonwealth realms [1], which do not include India but do include nations like Canada and Australia. The point on diverging political stances still stands. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_realm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_realm