If you're interested, you should read GiveWell's detailed analysis of why it's reasonable to believe this (i.e. the efficacy of the charity to date, whether add

If you're interested, you should read GiveWell's detailed analysis of why it's reasonable to believe this (i.e. the efficacy of the charity to date, whether additional money will be spent with similar efficacy, etc.) and really form an opinion for yourself about whether it's true. Then, act on that opinion. https://www.givewell.org/charities/amf https://www.givewell.org/charities/amf You might also want to read this meta-discussion by GiveWell on such analyses: https://blog.givewell.org/2011/08/18/why-we-cant-take-expected-value-estimates-literally-even-when-theyre-unbiased/ https://blog.givewell.org/2011/08/18/why-we-cant-take-expect...