6 ms·

isn't talking about 100K/coin in 2017-2020 is as unrealistic as talking about 10K/coin in 2013-2015?

leetcrew 6y ago
yes, but the point of the anecdote is who is saying it, not what is being said.
jakeva 6y ago
I would say so. Same as talking about 1k/coin in 2011. That said, I wish I had unloaded near the last peak. I would have been positioned to quadruple my stake near the last low.
gruez 6y ago
Not really. price going up 10x is much easier when it's around $10, than when it's $1000. The higher the existing price, the more money that's required to pump the price, so it only makes sense that 10k->100k is harder than 1k->10k.
- IgorPartola 6y ago
  Why? I mean I got $10 in my pocket. You really think it’ll be worth $100-worth any time this year? Ford is currently trading at around $7. Think it can possibly go to $70 any time soon? You have to look at market cap, not individual price. Why would all the BTC that’s around be suddenly 10x the value it was a year ago? What would drive that?
  - gruez 6y ago
    >You have to look at market cap I thought that was implied, but yes you're right.
    - IgorPartola 6y ago
      How is it implied? You basically said going from $1 to $10 is easier than from $10 to $100. They are both a 10x increase in market cap. Why would one be easier than the other, aside from the mild psychological effect on retail buyers?
      - gruez 6y ago
        >They are both a 10x increase in market cap. Why would one be easier than the other, aside from the mild psychological effect on retail buyers? Let's imagine we're in the future and bitcoin made up 5% of global wealth. In that case, do you think it would be easier for bitcoin to go up 10x than it was back in the early 2010s?
        IgorPartola 6y ago
        It would be harder. But that would be regardless of the price. Going from $1 to $1.05 is the same as from $1000 to $1050. I am confused by how that’s confusing.
      - fluffy87 6y ago
        Because there is more poor ppl than rich ppl, and poor ppl can buy stonks at 1$, but they can’t buy stonks at 1000$. So if some idiot says that stonk X is hot at 1$, the amount of money that is available to buy that stonk and pump it’s price up is much higher than for a stonk that’s at 1000$ and that only 1% of the population can put money in.
        IgorPartola 6y ago
        This isn’t WSB, we spell it stocks :) Lots of places offer the ability to buy partial stocks. Also, BTC and company all allow partial coins. Lastly, idiot retail buyers who can only afford a few bucks of anything won’t move the market.
  - m0zg 6y ago
    > Why would all the BTC that’s around be suddenly 10x the value it was a year ago? Because currencies can collapse in value, and some of them will. I lived in Russia in the 90s. The hyperinflation was so bad they had to revise price stickers in the stores upwards _twice a day_ at one point. Some stores even switched to electronic price displays back then to make this easier to do. This also drives up the prices more because merchants have to factor in the hyperinflation with the latency of replenishing the stock, meaning that by the time they need to buy more stuff, that stuff could easily cost twice as much, so they'd increase prices further to account for that future cost, and their supplier would, of course, do the same, and so on and so forth, further driving the inflationary spiral. That wasn't because stuff was getting more valuable, that was because the ruble was collapsing through the floor. Those who had money either spent it on something right away, or converted it to dollars and exchanged only as much as they would need in the very near future. Except this time you don't get to do that because _dollar itself_ could collapse. A lot of the economy turned to barter deals by the way, where one type of goods was exchanged with another, often as a part of a multi-way deal, with little to no actual monetary component. That's not to say that BTC won't collapse along with the currencies though. It's just that you can't print more BTC on a whim. Armed with that experience, though, if you have a reasonably stable job, the best thing you can do right now is borrow a shit ton of money at historically low interest rates. If inflation hits (which it looks like it will), you will be able to pay back pennies on the dollar. All of the Russian oligarchs have gotten rich through a combination of hyperinflation and corruption.
- alasdair_ 6y ago
  > Not really. price going up 10x is much easier when it's around $10, than when it's $1000 I’m not sure this line of reasoning applies to altcoins whose maximum quantity can be set by the creator.
- maest 6y ago
  I think your argument is _almost_ right. You should be applying that logic to the total "market cap" of the asset, not to the unit price. In particular, the huge bull run in crypto happened because mass retail and institutional money came into the market, bidding the price up. Arguably, if TSA agents are already bought into bitcoin (the implication being that TSA agents, as a class of people, are very unsophisticated investors) there isn't a lot more money waiting on the sidelines that could flood the market (not completely true, as there are still untapped pools of institutional money).
ivalm 6y ago
In 2013-2015 sitting on my uni’s shuttle I didn’t hear about Bitcoin, in 2017 I did.

yes, but the point of the anecdote is who is saying it, not what is being said.

I would say so. Same as talking about 1k/coin in 2011. That said, I wish I had unloaded near the last peak. I would have been positioned to quadruple my stake near the last low.

gruez 6y ago

Not really. price going up 10x is much easier when it's around $10, than when it's $1000. The higher the existing price, the more money that's required to pump the price, so it only makes sense that 10k->100k is harder than 1k->10k.

IgorPartola 6y ago
Why? I mean I got $10 in my pocket. You really think it’ll be worth $100-worth any time this year? Ford is currently trading at around $7. Think it can possibly go to $70 any time soon? You have to look at market cap, not individual price. Why would all the BTC that’s around be suddenly 10x the value it was a year ago? What would drive that?
- gruez 6y ago
  >You have to look at market cap I thought that was implied, but yes you're right.
  - IgorPartola 6y ago
    How is it implied? You basically said going from $1 to $10 is easier than from $10 to $100. They are both a 10x increase in market cap. Why would one be easier than the other, aside from the mild psychological effect on retail buyers?
    - gruez 6y ago
      >They are both a 10x increase in market cap. Why would one be easier than the other, aside from the mild psychological effect on retail buyers? Let's imagine we're in the future and bitcoin made up 5% of global wealth. In that case, do you think it would be easier for bitcoin to go up 10x than it was back in the early 2010s?
      - IgorPartola 6y ago
        It would be harder. But that would be regardless of the price. Going from $1 to $1.05 is the same as from $1000 to $1050. I am confused by how that’s confusing.
    - fluffy87 6y ago
      Because there is more poor ppl than rich ppl, and poor ppl can buy stonks at 1$, but they can’t buy stonks at 1000$. So if some idiot says that stonk X is hot at 1$, the amount of money that is available to buy that stonk and pump it’s price up is much higher than for a stonk that’s at 1000$ and that only 1% of the population can put money in.
      - IgorPartola 6y ago
        This isn’t WSB, we spell it stocks :) Lots of places offer the ability to buy partial stocks. Also, BTC and company all allow partial coins. Lastly, idiot retail buyers who can only afford a few bucks of anything won’t move the market.
- m0zg 6y ago
  > Why would all the BTC that’s around be suddenly 10x the value it was a year ago? Because currencies can collapse in value, and some of them will. I lived in Russia in the 90s. The hyperinflation was so bad they had to revise price stickers in the stores upwards _twice a day_ at one point. Some stores even switched to electronic price displays back then to make this easier to do. This also drives up the prices more because merchants have to factor in the hyperinflation with the latency of replenishing the stock, meaning that by the time they need to buy more stuff, that stuff could easily cost twice as much, so they'd increase prices further to account for that future cost, and their supplier would, of course, do the same, and so on and so forth, further driving the inflationary spiral. That wasn't because stuff was getting more valuable, that was because the ruble was collapsing through the floor. Those who had money either spent it on something right away, or converted it to dollars and exchanged only as much as they would need in the very near future. Except this time you don't get to do that because _dollar itself_ could collapse. A lot of the economy turned to barter deals by the way, where one type of goods was exchanged with another, often as a part of a multi-way deal, with little to no actual monetary component. That's not to say that BTC won't collapse along with the currencies though. It's just that you can't print more BTC on a whim. Armed with that experience, though, if you have a reasonably stable job, the best thing you can do right now is borrow a shit ton of money at historically low interest rates. If inflation hits (which it looks like it will), you will be able to pay back pennies on the dollar. All of the Russian oligarchs have gotten rich through a combination of hyperinflation and corruption.
alasdair_ 6y ago
> Not really. price going up 10x is much easier when it's around $10, than when it's $1000 I’m not sure this line of reasoning applies to altcoins whose maximum quantity can be set by the creator.
maest 6y ago
I think your argument is _almost_ right. You should be applying that logic to the total "market cap" of the asset, not to the unit price. In particular, the huge bull run in crypto happened because mass retail and institutional money came into the market, bidding the price up. Arguably, if TSA agents are already bought into bitcoin (the implication being that TSA agents, as a class of people, are very unsophisticated investors) there isn't a lot more money waiting on the sidelines that could flood the market (not completely true, as there are still untapped pools of institutional money).

ivalm 6y ago

In 2013-2015 sitting on my uni’s shuttle I didn’t hear about Bitcoin, in 2017 I did.