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What lesson would that be? Facebook is hugely successful.

me_me_me 6y ago
Well yes, but it has limited growth potential. Latest generations are not interested joining it. So in 10 years it will be a dying platform. Kodak didn't die when invented digital cameras, but it was a downhill ride towards inevitable cliff.
- danpalmer 6y ago
  This is just a branding thing though right? We've had all sorts of social networks that each rise and fall. If Facebook has the formula for a successful network and can apply that formula over and over again that's pretty successful. Facebook is probably the the company most able to claim to have achieved this, with facebook.com and Instagram being two big hits, arguably Messenger and WhatsApp too. TikTok is probably the biggest sign that they have actually failed to hit a 3rd generation.
  - me_me_me 6y ago
    Who know, maybe its true. Though all I can see is: 'buying out promising products before they are going to become your rivals' mentality. It might be a successful strategy to run a business when you are big enough to do it (as long as your buyouts are correct). I heard about facebook from a friend when it was still exclusive and I joined when it was opened up. Now I open it up at what seems exponential intervals, and each time it seems my disappointment with the platform is also exponential. Its a mess filled with garbage mixed with adds that pretend to be content.
    - beenBoutIT 6y ago
      Back when it was still exclusive to people with university '.edu' email addresses Facebook was the best thing to ever happen to college. Instantly knowing who's in your classes or potential courses was a game changer.
  - usrusr 6y ago
    Facebook is establishing itself as the social network you go to when you are tired of chasing new social networks. If you wait long enough features off that new network will come to you. This is a much bigger market than dominating a five year cohort. Facebook has been declared dead without actually dying for so long now that it might still be alive when the retro mechanisms start kicking in.
  - mcintyre1994 6y ago
    It's not clear Facebook have the formula for a successful new network - Instagram and WhatsApp were both acquired. When Facebook have tried to create their own new networks, like their original Snapchat clone, it didn't work. That's not really a knock on them though, I don't think anybody else could claim to be able to spin up a successful new social network either.
- take_a_breath 6y ago
  ==Latest generations are not interested joining it.== But they sure love Instagram and WhatsApp.
- justapassenger 6y ago
  > Well yes, but it has limited growth potential. Absolutely. They just reported their Q2 earnings, and Facebook has 2.7B monthly active users. When you exclude China (where they aren't allowed), people without internet or too old/young, then yes - is growth is limited, largely by size of the human population. Even if young generations decide not to join, this will be likely most powerful network for decades.
- PKop 6y ago
  “Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.”
  - me_me_me 6y ago
    Welcome to era of neo capitalism
- joelbluminator 6y ago
  todays 30 and 40 year olds are more important than todays 14 year olds, and many of the 30 year olds are still on Facebook. in 15 years todays 14 year old are just gonna be in the beginning phase of their career and earning potential. And also whose to say Facebook doesn't buy one competing platform after the other? Only legal action can stop it from being dominant for decades.
Theodores 6y ago
Facebook is always there for people but it is not the talk of the town any more. A decade ago you could have everyone on it for their entire lunchbreaks, deep-stalking their mates. But nowadays people are not engaged with it compulsively. Younger people don't use it because their parents are on it. Content isn't made by people for Facebook because it won't show in their friends feeds. Advertisers that are small to medium size businesses don't get a return from spending their money there, so they have left too. Before Facebook there was the printed telephone book and the Yellow Pages. People and businesses had to be in the phone books because someone might want to contact them that way. But the Internet and email came along. Facebook is a bit like that, people are there but no more engaged than they are with a printed telephone book. Facebook bought WhatsApp and Instagram to keep the same eyeballs. Because of that Facebook are successful. But TikTok is the new, cool app in town. 80 million users in the US apparently, not all of them teenage girls.
- Avtomatk 6y ago
  I do not understand why this comment has a bad vote, hackernews looks like reddit, if a comment goes against your opinion, downvote without explaining the reasons. The only thing I disagree with is that Facebook does make big profits from its ads, in fact it does a tough competition to google and amazon... the rest of your arguments seem correct to me... facebook doesn't feel like the home that it was before... it feels more like a newspaper, full of ads, debates, news and toxic people
  - nindalf 6y ago
    That comment was downvoted because it was spinning unfounded and untrue speculation as facts. Here’s one example > Advertisers that are small to medium size businesses don't get a return from spending their money there, so they have left too. No, this is not true. Not only has Facebook done well in Q2, performance was unaffected by the boycott of large advertisers because of revenue from small businesses.
    - Avtomatk 6y ago
      Ok I also agree with that, but what I mean is that in my opinion, nobody is an expert in everything, right? ... and if someone is wrong about something, they deserve to know the reasons and not just reject their opinion and leave ... then everybody ask why social networks become toxic ... here's the reason
3pt14159 6y ago
Yes but it is especially uncool and if it stays uncool it will be a future myspace. Instagram is still ok, but even there. It's sliding. But I think Zuck knows this and buys up enough up and comers to probably stay ahead on enough things.
- zoltar 6y ago
  Feels like it's already the new AOL.
- SirensOfTitan 6y ago
  I find the MySpace comparison tired: * MySpace, at its peak, had around 75 MM MAU. * Facebook's core properties (Insta, WhatsApp, Messenger/Big Blue) have around 2.6 billion MAU. Even if I just consider FB core + Messenger, Facebook is roughly 20x larger than MySpace. Facebook, as a core product, also is growing in non-US markets, even though it has saturated the US markets for years. MySpace and Facebook just aren't comparable anymore.
  - ethbro 6y ago
    A more cogent comparison would include total available markets at the time. 75m MAU in 2008 is very different than 2.6b in 2020.
    - SirensOfTitan 6y ago
      I wasn't trying to make an exhaustive comparison, but each individual contributes inertia to the market regardless of the total size of the market (see 1 below) The MySpace argument often calls to the transient spirit of social media: one day it's hot, the other it's not. I recall Digg's death too after a controversial redesign. The issue with this argument is that: 1. Numbers not only increase inertia, but social products increase it too. If my friends aren't using a social platform neither am I, usually. 2. Facebook has such a rich culture of A/B testing that they'll never release controversial changes without a deeper understanding of the impact of those changes on engagement. They won't shoot themselves in the foot like Digg did with current leadership. 3. Facebook has a really successful history of acquisitions and its leadership is very aware of social media trends. It catches those trends early. As a consequence of (1), I'd argue that Facebook has a tremendous moat in comparison to its peers: it has a large amount of users who are more likely to stay put. While Facebook also moves slowly as a consequence of (2) often enough, it can move really quickly on producing novel products. Facebook certainly will face challenges in the future, but they're likely to be a lot different at this stage.
hnick 6y ago
A lot of people I know switched to Instagram because it was so simple. Just post a picture. Now they're Facebooking Instagram.

Well yes, but it has limited growth potential. Latest generations are not interested joining it. So in 10 years it will be a dying platform. Kodak didn't die when invented digital cameras, but it was a downhill ride towards inevitable cliff.

danpalmer 6y ago
This is just a branding thing though right? We've had all sorts of social networks that each rise and fall. If Facebook has the formula for a successful network and can apply that formula over and over again that's pretty successful. Facebook is probably the the company most able to claim to have achieved this, with facebook.com and Instagram being two big hits, arguably Messenger and WhatsApp too. TikTok is probably the biggest sign that they have actually failed to hit a 3rd generation.
- me_me_me 6y ago
  Who know, maybe its true. Though all I can see is: 'buying out promising products before they are going to become your rivals' mentality. It might be a successful strategy to run a business when you are big enough to do it (as long as your buyouts are correct). I heard about facebook from a friend when it was still exclusive and I joined when it was opened up. Now I open it up at what seems exponential intervals, and each time it seems my disappointment with the platform is also exponential. Its a mess filled with garbage mixed with adds that pretend to be content.
  - beenBoutIT 6y ago
    Back when it was still exclusive to people with university '.edu' email addresses Facebook was the best thing to ever happen to college. Instantly knowing who's in your classes or potential courses was a game changer.
- usrusr 6y ago
  Facebook is establishing itself as the social network you go to when you are tired of chasing new social networks. If you wait long enough features off that new network will come to you. This is a much bigger market than dominating a five year cohort. Facebook has been declared dead without actually dying for so long now that it might still be alive when the retro mechanisms start kicking in.
- mcintyre1994 6y ago
  It's not clear Facebook have the formula for a successful new network - Instagram and WhatsApp were both acquired. When Facebook have tried to create their own new networks, like their original Snapchat clone, it didn't work. That's not really a knock on them though, I don't think anybody else could claim to be able to spin up a successful new social network either.
take_a_breath 6y ago
==Latest generations are not interested joining it.== But they sure love Instagram and WhatsApp.
justapassenger 6y ago
> Well yes, but it has limited growth potential. Absolutely. They just reported their Q2 earnings, and Facebook has 2.7B monthly active users. When you exclude China (where they aren't allowed), people without internet or too old/young, then yes - is growth is limited, largely by size of the human population. Even if young generations decide not to join, this will be likely most powerful network for decades.
PKop 6y ago
“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.”
- me_me_me 6y ago
  Welcome to era of neo capitalism
joelbluminator 6y ago
todays 30 and 40 year olds are more important than todays 14 year olds, and many of the 30 year olds are still on Facebook. in 15 years todays 14 year old are just gonna be in the beginning phase of their career and earning potential. And also whose to say Facebook doesn't buy one competing platform after the other? Only legal action can stop it from being dominant for decades.

Theodores 6y ago

Facebook is always there for people but it is not the talk of the town any more. A decade ago you could have everyone on it for their entire lunchbreaks, deep-stalking their mates. But nowadays people are not engaged with it compulsively. Younger people don't use it because their parents are on it. Content isn't made by people for Facebook because it won't show in their friends feeds. Advertisers that are small to medium size businesses don't get a return from spending their money there, so they have left too. Before Facebook there was the printed telephone book and the Yellow Pages. People and businesses had to be in the phone books because someone might want to contact them that way. But the Internet and email came along. Facebook is a bit like that, people are there but no more engaged than they are with a printed telephone book. Facebook bought WhatsApp and Instagram to keep the same eyeballs. Because of that Facebook are successful. But TikTok is the new, cool app in town. 80 million users in the US apparently, not all of them teenage girls.

Avtomatk 6y ago
I do not understand why this comment has a bad vote, hackernews looks like reddit, if a comment goes against your opinion, downvote without explaining the reasons. The only thing I disagree with is that Facebook does make big profits from its ads, in fact it does a tough competition to google and amazon... the rest of your arguments seem correct to me... facebook doesn't feel like the home that it was before... it feels more like a newspaper, full of ads, debates, news and toxic people
- nindalf 6y ago
  That comment was downvoted because it was spinning unfounded and untrue speculation as facts. Here’s one example > Advertisers that are small to medium size businesses don't get a return from spending their money there, so they have left too. No, this is not true. Not only has Facebook done well in Q2, performance was unaffected by the boycott of large advertisers because of revenue from small businesses.
  - Avtomatk 6y ago
    Ok I also agree with that, but what I mean is that in my opinion, nobody is an expert in everything, right? ... and if someone is wrong about something, they deserve to know the reasons and not just reject their opinion and leave ... then everybody ask why social networks become toxic ... here's the reason

3pt14159 6y ago

Yes but it is especially uncool and if it stays uncool it will be a future myspace. Instagram is still ok, but even there. It's sliding. But I think Zuck knows this and buys up enough up and comers to probably stay ahead on enough things.

zoltar 6y ago
Feels like it's already the new AOL.
SirensOfTitan 6y ago
I find the MySpace comparison tired: * MySpace, at its peak, had around 75 MM MAU. * Facebook's core properties (Insta, WhatsApp, Messenger/Big Blue) have around 2.6 billion MAU. Even if I just consider FB core + Messenger, Facebook is roughly 20x larger than MySpace. Facebook, as a core product, also is growing in non-US markets, even though it has saturated the US markets for years. MySpace and Facebook just aren't comparable anymore.
- ethbro 6y ago
  A more cogent comparison would include total available markets at the time. 75m MAU in 2008 is very different than 2.6b in 2020.
  - SirensOfTitan 6y ago
    I wasn't trying to make an exhaustive comparison, but each individual contributes inertia to the market regardless of the total size of the market (see 1 below) The MySpace argument often calls to the transient spirit of social media: one day it's hot, the other it's not. I recall Digg's death too after a controversial redesign. The issue with this argument is that: 1. Numbers not only increase inertia, but social products increase it too. If my friends aren't using a social platform neither am I, usually. 2. Facebook has such a rich culture of A/B testing that they'll never release controversial changes without a deeper understanding of the impact of those changes on engagement. They won't shoot themselves in the foot like Digg did with current leadership. 3. Facebook has a really successful history of acquisitions and its leadership is very aware of social media trends. It catches those trends early. As a consequence of (1), I'd argue that Facebook has a tremendous moat in comparison to its peers: it has a large amount of users who are more likely to stay put. While Facebook also moves slowly as a consequence of (2) often enough, it can move really quickly on producing novel products. Facebook certainly will face challenges in the future, but they're likely to be a lot different at this stage.

hnick 6y ago

A lot of people I know switched to Instagram because it was so simple. Just post a picture. Now they're Facebooking Instagram.