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Author here. I agree with some of your concerns. From the post: > The mind doesn’t always work like Bayes Theorem prescribes. There’s lots of things Bayes can
by neilkakkar 6y ago
Author here. I agree with some of your concerns.
From the post:
> The mind doesn’t always work like Bayes Theorem prescribes. There’s lots of things Bayes can’t explain. Don’t try to fit everything you see into Bayes rule. But wherever beliefs are concerned, it’s a good model to use. Find the best beliefs and calibrate them!
The one concern I'm really interested by, and don't understand, is this:
> There are thus lots of reasons to believe that we do not think and should not think in a Bayesian way.
Can you give an example that can serve as motivation to read the entire paper linked?
- usgroup 6y agoSee here: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/epistemology-bayesian/ https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/epistemology-bayesian/ Section 6.2 gives a very concise list of problems. For further reading have a go at para-consistent logic for more total upheaval of the Jaynesian view of the centrality of predicate logic as the principal language of science (of which Bayes is a probabilistic relaxation according to Jaynes).