4 ms·
Governments, businesses, and households in emerging/developing economies have been borrowing like drunken sailors since 2010. It's well documented. For instance
by cs702 6y ago
Governments, businesses, and households in emerging/developing economies have been borrowing like drunken sailors since 2010. It's well documented. For instance, in late 2019, right before the economic shock of the pandemic, a team of academics at the World Bank published a comprehensive study of debt issuance by governments, businesses, and households around the world, titled "Global Waves of Debt" (available at https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/publication/waves-of-debt https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/publication/waves-of-d...). Let me quote their key findings:
* "The global economy has experienced four waves of debt accumulation over the past fifty years."
* "The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging and developing economies."
* "The latest, since 2010, has already witnessed the largest, fastest and most broad-based increase in debt in these economies."
* "Debt distress... [is] more likely."
The pandemic has inflicted the largest economic shock in half a century to emerging-economy governments, businesses, and households that had borrowed the most ever in proportion to GDP prior to the pandemic. Turkey, I'm afraid, may be only the proverbial canary in the coal mine.