4 ms·

Grateful for anyone that studies this but there has been so much false hope in the past six months that I came to ignore all these findings.

tremon 6y ago
What kind of hope were you holding if I may ask, that it's been crushed that many times already? My government (NL) has always been very clear that a vaccine would not be expected until late 2020/early 2021 at the earliest, and that we would have to cope until then. Also, we haven't been treating the disease yet. We have gotten better at managing/alleviating the symptoms and relying on the body's own immune system to clear the infection. If this discovery allows for a more targeted treatment of the infection itself rather than its symptoms, it's actually very good news. But even then, it's going to take months before we can validate the efficacy of such a treatment.
- paganel 6y ago
  > What kind of hope were you holding if I may ask, that it's been crushed that many times already? Not the OP but the expectations were that in 6 months' time we would have gotten better at treating at least "some" of the disease. No-one knowledgeable enough expected a vaccine by this autumn but some people were hoping for a greatly increased standard of covid care in August 2020 compared to February 2020. Re: the vaccine thing, I don't think that's logistically possible to give the vaccine to billions of people in less than a year (even a 50% covid vaccination rate for our species would mean administering 3.5-4 billion vaccines), so 2022 at the earliest looks like our best bet (hoping that we'd actually have the vaccine by early 2021). Looking at past vaccination campaigns I personally think that even a 3-5 year timeframe looks optimistic, but that's just me.
  - randallsquared 6y ago
    March or April compared to now seem to indicate we do have a greatly increased standard of care, resulting in a much higher infections per death ratio.
    - uw_rob 6y ago
      This isn't necessarily true - there is a implied assumption that the infections are still following the same distribution among people with different risk factors, but that isn't necessarily the case.

tremon 6y ago

What kind of hope were you holding if I may ask, that it's been crushed that many times already? My government (NL) has always been very clear that a vaccine would not be expected until late 2020/early 2021 at the earliest, and that we would have to cope until then. Also, we haven't been treating the disease yet. We have gotten better at managing/alleviating the symptoms and relying on the body's own immune system to clear the infection. If this discovery allows for a more targeted treatment of the infection itself rather than its symptoms, it's actually very good news. But even then, it's going to take months before we can validate the efficacy of such a treatment.

paganel 6y ago
> What kind of hope were you holding if I may ask, that it's been crushed that many times already? Not the OP but the expectations were that in 6 months' time we would have gotten better at treating at least "some" of the disease. No-one knowledgeable enough expected a vaccine by this autumn but some people were hoping for a greatly increased standard of covid care in August 2020 compared to February 2020. Re: the vaccine thing, I don't think that's logistically possible to give the vaccine to billions of people in less than a year (even a 50% covid vaccination rate for our species would mean administering 3.5-4 billion vaccines), so 2022 at the earliest looks like our best bet (hoping that we'd actually have the vaccine by early 2021). Looking at past vaccination campaigns I personally think that even a 3-5 year timeframe looks optimistic, but that's just me.
- randallsquared 6y ago
  March or April compared to now seem to indicate we do have a greatly increased standard of care, resulting in a much higher infections per death ratio.
  - uw_rob 6y ago
    This isn't necessarily true - there is a implied assumption that the infections are still following the same distribution among people with different risk factors, but that isn't necessarily the case.