3 ms·
Hull losses is a reasonable way to reason about relative risk of dying from spending your time on the plane. E.g. if you lived on one of the aircraft, you would
by ummonk 6y ago
Hull losses is a reasonable way to reason about relative risk of dying from spending your time on the plane. E.g. if you lived on one of the aircraft, you would have had a ~0.5% chance of dying during that time period. That's pretty terrible.
- kd5bjo 6y agoAssuming the average flight is 1 hour long, that’s a 0.5% chance of dying in 28.5 years of flight time. 0.995^138 is approximately 50%, so the expected amount of time you’d need to spend onboard to have even odds chance of dying due to hull loss is about 4000 years. There are a lot of factors this analysis doesn’t take into account, particularly the difference in airframe fault rate over time: A new plane will have different reliability figures than a 4000-year old one.