3 ms·

I would look at this as being more of a black swan event. No investor can factor those in because they are unknown by definition. This isn't about lifestyle.

by pravus 6y ago

I would look at this as being more of a black swan event. No investor can factor those in because they are unknown by definition. This isn't about lifestyle. If CRE crashes, this is 2008 all over again and probably an order of magnitude worse. Commercial real estate has been a very active asset class over the past decade and it's huge.

dredmorbius 6y ago
"Global Catastrophic Risk Survey", 2008 [pdf] http://www.global-catastrophic-risks.com/docs/2008-1.pdf http://www.global-catastrophic-risks.com/docs/2008-1.pdf Includes discussion of a "biggest natural pandemic". Posted to HN, if not discussed, on Oct 2, 2016. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12623582 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12623582 The question of GCR has been raised numerous other times on HN, though admittedly more recently of late: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=global%20catastrophic%20risk&sort=byDate&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu... Infectious disease features prominantly among discussions of GCR: https://web.archive.org/web/20120912020526/http://gcrinstitute.org/research.html https://web.archive.org/web/20120912020526/http://gcrinstitu... Even software executives have suggested concern, this example from 5 years ago: https://youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI https://youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI As has the US military, from 2017: https://www.darpa.mil/program/pandemic-prevention-platform https://www.darpa.mil/program/pandemic-prevention-platform Economic impacts of pandemic have seen significant scholarly treatment, here looking at 1990-2018: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?as_ylo=1990&as_yhi=2018&q=pandemic+economic+impacts&hl=en&as_sdt=0,39 https://scholar.google.com/scholar?as_ylo=1990&as_yhi=2018&q... Less black swan than head-buried ostrich, it might appear.

by pravus 6y ago

dredmorbius 6y ago

"Global Catastrophic Risk Survey", 2008 [pdf] http://www.global-catastrophic-risks.com/docs/2008-1.pdf http://www.global-catastrophic-risks.com/docs/2008-1.pdf Includes discussion of a "biggest natural pandemic". Posted to HN, if not discussed, on Oct 2, 2016. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12623582 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12623582 The question of GCR has been raised numerous other times on HN, though admittedly more recently of late: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&query=global%20catastrophic%20risk&sort=byDate&type=story https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu... Infectious disease features prominantly among discussions of GCR: https://web.archive.org/web/20120912020526/http://gcrinstitute.org/research.html https://web.archive.org/web/20120912020526/http://gcrinstitu... Even software executives have suggested concern, this example from 5 years ago: https://youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI https://youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI As has the US military, from 2017: https://www.darpa.mil/program/pandemic-prevention-platform https://www.darpa.mil/program/pandemic-prevention-platform Economic impacts of pandemic have seen significant scholarly treatment, here looking at 1990-2018: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?as_ylo=1990&as_yhi=2018&q=pandemic+economic+impacts&hl=en&as_sdt=0,39 https://scholar.google.com/scholar?as_ylo=1990&as_yhi=2018&q... Less black swan than head-buried ostrich, it might appear.