This is a great breakdown of prediction markets and how it would be far more accurate than a poll due to loss aversion which cancels out bias. This is classic “

This is a great breakdown of prediction markets and how it would be far more accurate than a poll due to loss aversion which cancels out bias. This is classic “Put your money where your mouth is”. Edit: In other words, if you believe in modern portfolio theory and market efficiency, aka boglehead index fund beats all; then you must conclude that if this was actually an efficient betting market than the outcome would be near 100% certainty.