6 ms·

Why wasn't there a large spike with the recent protests in the participating demographic? https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/07/01/research-determines

by aantix 6y ago

Why wasn't there a large spike with the recent protests in the participating demographic? https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/07/01/research-determines-protests-did-not-cause-spike-in-coronavirus-cases/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/07/01/research-d... The chants "no justice, no peace"? "I can't breath"? Those were clear chants. Everyone breathing on each other while chanting. Unencumbered by a mask.

squeaky-clean 6y ago
> Unencumbered by a mask. Got a source on this? From the protests I've been attending, I'd say mask usage is easily at 99% of attendees. Everyone pictured in your linked article also has a mask, at least 10% have full masks and face shields.
- derg 6y ago
  hell at the ones I went to there were roving groups of people handing out masks and gloves (more masks than gloves and the masks came directly from the box), hand sanitizer, and water. it was a sight to see honestly and very heartening bit of community and mutual aid.
machello13 6y ago
That's only a single paper, hardly conclusive. But also: > Unencumbered by a mask. The picture at the beginning of the article you linked shows every protester wearing a mask.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
enraged_camel 6y ago
Note that the findings don't say "those who went to the protests did not catch the virus or transmit it to others". They just say there wasn't an overall spike after the protests. The fourth bullet point addresses this directly: "The study’s lead author, Dhaval Dave of Bentley University, said, “In many cities, the protests actually seemed to lead to a net increase in social distancing, as more people who did not protest decided to stay off the streets.”"
- James_Henry 6y ago
  Also, though it isn't part of the NBER working paper, the Forbes article mentions that: 'the Minneapolis Department of Health reported that more than 15,000 people were tested at centers set up in communities affected by the protests, and 1.7% of tests came back positive—below the statewide average of about 3.6%. According to the Washington Post, protest attendees in Minneapolis returned positivity rates of less than 1% and that “officials believe the low infection rates reflect that the protests were outside, that most people wore masks and that people spent most of their time in motion, circulating through the crowd.”'
obelos 6y ago
They're in the extremely well ventilated outdoors, and at least at the protests I was at there were very few people not wearing masks. Also, people in these gatherings tend to mill about, which means any contact with a stream of virus-infused exhalations will be brief and less likely to introduce a viable quantity into you.
- James_Henry 6y ago
  This is what the Forbes article reports the Washington Post saying that Minnesota health officials believe, and it seems to make sense.
- jakear 6y ago
  I haven’t seen any research on this, but is there a chance being introduced to very small viral loads could actually improve your expected future health? We know that larger loads are harder to fight and produce worse symptoms, but what of “mico-loads”? It would seem they should almost act as a semi-vaccine: you get an easy to fight and low symptom load once, then you’ve created antibodies for the future. So long as you continue to be exposed to micro-loads in day to day life, those antibodies shouldn’t go away, and you’ll be safe from any potential “mega-load”.
  - obelos 6y ago
    I don't know if there's data specific to SARS-CoV-2, but this is the mechanism behind inoculation (as opposed to vaccination). This method was used to reduce smallpox deaths before vaccination had been developed.
ColanR 6y ago
To the other folks replying: I looked up the protests on ddg images, and about half of the protesters in those photos were wearing masks. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=blm+protest+2020&iar=images&iax=images&ia=images https://duckduckgo.com/?q=blm+protest+2020&iar=images&iax=im...
- jimktrains2 6y ago
  The plural of anecdote is not data. There were obviously a mix of behaviors, and which was predominant and where is a crucial factor to control in any analysis.
- squeaky-clean 6y ago
  You can't simply search for "BLM Protest". The 2020 protests are not the first BLM protests, these are just the first BLM protests that are getting global attention. On the first row of images that appear for me, when following the sourced article, they are from the years: 2015, 2016, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2020 (everyone in this picture has masks)
  - ColanR 6y ago
    Yeah, I noticed and fixed the search.
danaliv 6y ago
> Unencumbered by a mask. That hasn’t been my experience. Every action I’ve attended has had clear messaging leading up to it about masks and social distancing, and attendees have adhered to guidelines.
- aantix 6y ago
  This is adhering to the social distancing guidelines? https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/george-floyd-protests-photos.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/george-floyd-protest... The crowds are tight and packed.
  - tehjoker 6y ago
    That was my experience in June. Crowds were packed but nearly everyone had a mask. It makes me think the masks are more important than social distancing (at least outdoors), but I'm not gonna stop social distancing where feasible. I was very pleasantly surprised that people didn't get sick.
  - stronglikedan 6y ago
    You started with masks, not social distancing, so sticking to your original argument, I'd say that link you provided just indicates that masks worked well enough to protect the protestors, even without considering the social distancing aspect.
    - aantix 6y ago
      'social distancing' was a response to the parent.
  - BoiledCabbage 6y ago
    You're arguing for how effective masks are in stopping this virus. A fact that it'd be nice if more people accepted. And is great info that the protests demonstrated so.
    - aantix 6y ago
James_Henry 6y ago
The paper the Forbes article references doesn't seem to refute the idea that there wasn't a spike in "the participating demographic". They mostly focused on the increase in social distancing among those not participating in the protests. That aside, the Atlantic article talks about outside air diluting the virus. The Forbes article you linked also talks about this.
highmastdon 6y ago
I think a key part is also the dose in which you get infected that leads to illness. When you're in the open air, breathing and chanting, the dose of the virus is so low, that the immune system can easily defend against it. Also, the virus doesn't kill most people, the human immune (over)reaction does. This is my laymen's way of describing a (deadly) course of the virus and disease. 1.1. person breaths in microparticles (aerosols) contaminated with the virus 1.2. breaths in low or high dose (in further steps shown as L and H) 1.3. (L and H) directly deep into the lungs [1] (almost like intracellular viral infection) 2.1. (L and H) innate arm of immune system tries to combat it 2.2. (L and H) adaptive arm of immune system is being activated [2] (takes at most 7 days to mount a significant response) 2.3. (L) virus replicates slowly and is kept in check, because low dose is easier to combat by innate arm of immune system (availability of Vitamine D seems key as it exhibits direct antiviral activities [3] probably Zinc as well as it inhibits RNA replication of the virus [4]) 2.4. (H) virus replicates fast because the high dose can't be handled by the innate arm -> This is the point when most people will either get more ill and be hospitalized, or recover. This is also when it's too late for HCQ and Zinc to be effective. (Set of studies showing effectiveness for early or late treatment with HCQ + Zinc + Azithromycin[5]) 3.1. (L) virus is controlled and the innate arm of the immune system can handle the virus. The adaptive arm cleans up the last bits of the virus and person is no longer ill. -> Low dose infected person might stay Asymptomatic or experience a Light Cold or minor fever. 3.2. (H) virus is out of control and the adaptive arm reacts with an overreaction of the antibodies resulting in a cytokine storm 3.3. Person gets severe inflammation and thrombosis and gets heavily ill. -> High dose infection: this is the point of no return and anyone who reaches this is bound to have a long track of recovery in front of them, or death. I've added some sources, be aware that for each source there's multitude of other sources claiming the same thing. Research yourself! [1]: https://www.intechopen.com/books/rhinosinusitis/aerosol-particles-in-lungs-theoretical-modeling-of-deposition-and-mucociliary-clearance https://www.intechopen.com/books/rhinosinusitis/aerosol-part... [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptive_immune_system#Functions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptive_immune_system#Functio... [3]: https://youtu.be/Mdc7T2UTHBI?t=216 https://youtu.be/Mdc7T2UTHBI?t=216 [4]: https://youtu.be/WZq-K1wpur8?t=447 https://youtu.be/WZq-K1wpur8?t=447 [5]: https://c19study.com/ https://c19study.com/
- aantix 6y ago

by aantix 6y ago

squeaky-clean 6y ago

> Unencumbered by a mask. Got a source on this? From the protests I've been attending, I'd say mask usage is easily at 99% of attendees. Everyone pictured in your linked article also has a mask, at least 10% have full masks and face shields.

derg 6y ago
hell at the ones I went to there were roving groups of people handing out masks and gloves (more masks than gloves and the masks came directly from the box), hand sanitizer, and water. it was a sight to see honestly and very heartening bit of community and mutual aid.

machello13 6y ago

That's only a single paper, hardly conclusive. But also: > Unencumbered by a mask. The picture at the beginning of the article you linked shows every protester wearing a mask.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

enraged_camel 6y ago

Note that the findings don't say "those who went to the protests did not catch the virus or transmit it to others". They just say there wasn't an overall spike after the protests. The fourth bullet point addresses this directly: "The study’s lead author, Dhaval Dave of Bentley University, said, “In many cities, the protests actually seemed to lead to a net increase in social distancing, as more people who did not protest decided to stay off the streets.”"

James_Henry 6y ago
Also, though it isn't part of the NBER working paper, the Forbes article mentions that: 'the Minneapolis Department of Health reported that more than 15,000 people were tested at centers set up in communities affected by the protests, and 1.7% of tests came back positive—below the statewide average of about 3.6%. According to the Washington Post, protest attendees in Minneapolis returned positivity rates of less than 1% and that “officials believe the low infection rates reflect that the protests were outside, that most people wore masks and that people spent most of their time in motion, circulating through the crowd.”'

obelos 6y ago

They're in the extremely well ventilated outdoors, and at least at the protests I was at there were very few people not wearing masks. Also, people in these gatherings tend to mill about, which means any contact with a stream of virus-infused exhalations will be brief and less likely to introduce a viable quantity into you.

James_Henry 6y ago
This is what the Forbes article reports the Washington Post saying that Minnesota health officials believe, and it seems to make sense.
jakear 6y ago
I haven’t seen any research on this, but is there a chance being introduced to very small viral loads could actually improve your expected future health? We know that larger loads are harder to fight and produce worse symptoms, but what of “mico-loads”? It would seem they should almost act as a semi-vaccine: you get an easy to fight and low symptom load once, then you’ve created antibodies for the future. So long as you continue to be exposed to micro-loads in day to day life, those antibodies shouldn’t go away, and you’ll be safe from any potential “mega-load”.
- obelos 6y ago
  I don't know if there's data specific to SARS-CoV-2, but this is the mechanism behind inoculation (as opposed to vaccination). This method was used to reduce smallpox deaths before vaccination had been developed.

ColanR 6y ago

To the other folks replying: I looked up the protests on ddg images, and about half of the protesters in those photos were wearing masks. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=blm+protest+2020&iar=images&iax=images&ia=images https://duckduckgo.com/?q=blm+protest+2020&iar=images&iax=im...

jimktrains2 6y ago
The plural of anecdote is not data. There were obviously a mix of behaviors, and which was predominant and where is a crucial factor to control in any analysis.
squeaky-clean 6y ago
You can't simply search for "BLM Protest". The 2020 protests are not the first BLM protests, these are just the first BLM protests that are getting global attention. On the first row of images that appear for me, when following the sourced article, they are from the years: 2015, 2016, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2020 (everyone in this picture has masks)
- ColanR 6y ago
  Yeah, I noticed and fixed the search.

danaliv 6y ago

> Unencumbered by a mask. That hasn’t been my experience. Every action I’ve attended has had clear messaging leading up to it about masks and social distancing, and attendees have adhered to guidelines.

aantix 6y ago
This is adhering to the social distancing guidelines? https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/george-floyd-protests-photos.html https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/george-floyd-protest... The crowds are tight and packed.
- tehjoker 6y ago
  That was my experience in June. Crowds were packed but nearly everyone had a mask. It makes me think the masks are more important than social distancing (at least outdoors), but I'm not gonna stop social distancing where feasible. I was very pleasantly surprised that people didn't get sick.
- stronglikedan 6y ago
  You started with masks, not social distancing, so sticking to your original argument, I'd say that link you provided just indicates that masks worked well enough to protect the protestors, even without considering the social distancing aspect.
  - aantix 6y ago
    'social distancing' was a response to the parent.
- BoiledCabbage 6y ago
  You're arguing for how effective masks are in stopping this virus. A fact that it'd be nice if more people accepted. And is great info that the protests demonstrated so.
  - aantix 6y ago

James_Henry 6y ago

The paper the Forbes article references doesn't seem to refute the idea that there wasn't a spike in "the participating demographic". They mostly focused on the increase in social distancing among those not participating in the protests. That aside, the Atlantic article talks about outside air diluting the virus. The Forbes article you linked also talks about this.

highmastdon 6y ago

I think a key part is also the dose in which you get infected that leads to illness. When you're in the open air, breathing and chanting, the dose of the virus is so low, that the immune system can easily defend against it. Also, the virus doesn't kill most people, the human immune (over)reaction does. This is my laymen's way of describing a (deadly) course of the virus and disease. 1.1. person breaths in microparticles (aerosols) contaminated with the virus 1.2. breaths in low or high dose (in further steps shown as L and H) 1.3. (L and H) directly deep into the lungs [1] (almost like intracellular viral infection) 2.1. (L and H) innate arm of immune system tries to combat it 2.2. (L and H) adaptive arm of immune system is being activated [2] (takes at most 7 days to mount a significant response) 2.3. (L) virus replicates slowly and is kept in check, because low dose is easier to combat by innate arm of immune system (availability of Vitamine D seems key as it exhibits direct antiviral activities [3] probably Zinc as well as it inhibits RNA replication of the virus [4]) 2.4. (H) virus replicates fast because the high dose can't be handled by the innate arm -> This is the point when most people will either get more ill and be hospitalized, or recover. This is also when it's too late for HCQ and Zinc to be effective. (Set of studies showing effectiveness for early or late treatment with HCQ + Zinc + Azithromycin[5]) 3.1. (L) virus is controlled and the innate arm of the immune system can handle the virus. The adaptive arm cleans up the last bits of the virus and person is no longer ill. -> Low dose infected person might stay Asymptomatic or experience a Light Cold or minor fever. 3.2. (H) virus is out of control and the adaptive arm reacts with an overreaction of the antibodies resulting in a cytokine storm 3.3. Person gets severe inflammation and thrombosis and gets heavily ill. -> High dose infection: this is the point of no return and anyone who reaches this is bound to have a long track of recovery in front of them, or death. I've added some sources, be aware that for each source there's multitude of other sources claiming the same thing. Research yourself! [1]: https://www.intechopen.com/books/rhinosinusitis/aerosol-particles-in-lungs-theoretical-modeling-of-deposition-and-mucociliary-clearance https://www.intechopen.com/books/rhinosinusitis/aerosol-part... [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptive_immune_system#Functions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptive_immune_system#Functio... [3]: https://youtu.be/Mdc7T2UTHBI?t=216 https://youtu.be/Mdc7T2UTHBI?t=216 [4]: https://youtu.be/WZq-K1wpur8?t=447 https://youtu.be/WZq-K1wpur8?t=447 [5]: https://c19study.com/ https://c19study.com/

aantix 6y ago