Imagine that a group of good software developers were assigned to pick 10 interns out of a pool of 100 applicants for a role at a Facebook, Google, etc. (substi

Imagine that a group of good software developers were assigned to pick 10 interns out of a pool of 100 applicants for a role at a Facebook, Google, etc. (substitute any software organization which attracts a great applicant pool). What's the probability that most of the ten chosen will be regarded as top engineers ten years from now? I argue that it's pretty high because raw talent is easily measured by skilled practitioners. One or two might have marginal careers because they're flaky or have other, non-technical issues, but the odds of securing a good intern pool from which to hire are quite high. Are the skills required to be a good lobbyist, talent manager, etc. so easily measured in young people? An internship program wouldn't be terribly valuable for Google if only 1/10 interns were regarded as potential hires after a Summer of observation. What are the implications of such relative randomness on rational behavior on a firm's part w.r.t. internship programs?