2 ms·
I think the estimated threshold of 70% is way too high. That estimate is based on models that were shown to be wrong by empirical data we just observed. I think
by xyzzyz 6y ago
I think the estimated threshold of 70% is way too high. That estimate is based on models that were shown to be wrong by empirical data we just observed. I think the herd immunity threshold is rather around 20-30%.
I think coming few months will prove me right: we will see more and more relaxation of lockdowns, without corresponding increase in cases, but only in places where the epidemics have already came on hard. Where it hasn’t been much of a thing, we will see many new cases and deaths, until those too will subside.