4 ms·

The NYT has a tracker for this: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04

by fiblye 6y ago

The NYT has a tracker for this: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav... A few countries are close enough to be considered accurate. Some are off by over 100%.

swebs 6y ago
Why isn't China on that list as well?
- rjtavares 6y ago
  We don't have reliable information for how many people die in China per week, so we can't compare.
- mensetmanusman 6y ago
  China has exactly hit their amazing numbers with pitch-perfect accuracy. Hail Mao!
nwellnhof 6y ago
The graphs only show actual vs. expected deaths and don't take any reported deaths from COVID-19 into account. They're simply about excess mortality, not about reporting accuracy.
- creato 6y ago
  Yes, that's the point. Absent another explanation for unusual deaths, it seems likely they are due to COVID-19.
  - lixtra 6y ago
    Or people not going to the hospital in time because they are afraid of covid.
    - corty 6y ago
      Yes, but there are also effects of lockdowns, shortened flu season, etc that lower mortality. E.g. Germany has practically zero excess mortality this year (within the usual variation). So people avoiding hospitals also shouldn't be a very large effect, at least over here. It will be interesting, when it's all over and all numbers are in, to look at the statistics of this.
    - AmericanChopper 6y ago
      Or any number of other potentially unknown factors resulting from the completely unprescendented disruption to normal life that has been going on across the world for a number of months. Anybody claiming to know specifically what to expect from something that has never happened before should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism. Especially if their only way of taking measurements is so imprecise and inconsistently applied.
    - hutzlibu 6y ago
      Or people killing themself, because their economic base is destroyed.
    - dredmorbius 6y ago
      The larger point is that increased mortality attributable to there being a global pandemic can be considered a consequence of the pandemic. The deaths may not be directly attributable to the infectious agent and disease mechanism of SARS-COV-2 or COVID-19, that is, the virus or disease. But they are, in the absence of another plausible causal mechanism, part of the overall impact on public health. Gross mortality anomoly is the truest measure of impact. (Deeper discussions of causality and epistemology omitted.)
  - beagle3 6y ago
    Yes, but they are not "undercounted" if the excess number matches the number of corona deaths.
    - pests 6y ago
      The excess is already counting reported covid deaths.
  - sgt101 6y ago
    Apart from things like heart attacks and strokes that are untreated because of patient caution?
mjul 6y ago
European mortality statistics are published by the Euromomo network and can be found here: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

by fiblye 6y ago

swebs 6y ago

Why isn't China on that list as well?

rjtavares 6y ago
We don't have reliable information for how many people die in China per week, so we can't compare.
mensetmanusman 6y ago
China has exactly hit their amazing numbers with pitch-perfect accuracy. Hail Mao!

nwellnhof 6y ago

The graphs only show actual vs. expected deaths and don't take any reported deaths from COVID-19 into account. They're simply about excess mortality, not about reporting accuracy.

creato 6y ago
Yes, that's the point. Absent another explanation for unusual deaths, it seems likely they are due to COVID-19.
- lixtra 6y ago
  Or people not going to the hospital in time because they are afraid of covid.
  - corty 6y ago
    Yes, but there are also effects of lockdowns, shortened flu season, etc that lower mortality. E.g. Germany has practically zero excess mortality this year (within the usual variation). So people avoiding hospitals also shouldn't be a very large effect, at least over here. It will be interesting, when it's all over and all numbers are in, to look at the statistics of this.
  - AmericanChopper 6y ago
    Or any number of other potentially unknown factors resulting from the completely unprescendented disruption to normal life that has been going on across the world for a number of months. Anybody claiming to know specifically what to expect from something that has never happened before should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism. Especially if their only way of taking measurements is so imprecise and inconsistently applied.
  - hutzlibu 6y ago
    Or people killing themself, because their economic base is destroyed.
  - dredmorbius 6y ago
    The larger point is that increased mortality attributable to there being a global pandemic can be considered a consequence of the pandemic. The deaths may not be directly attributable to the infectious agent and disease mechanism of SARS-COV-2 or COVID-19, that is, the virus or disease. But they are, in the absence of another plausible causal mechanism, part of the overall impact on public health. Gross mortality anomoly is the truest measure of impact. (Deeper discussions of causality and epistemology omitted.)
- beagle3 6y ago
  Yes, but they are not "undercounted" if the excess number matches the number of corona deaths.
  - pests 6y ago
    The excess is already counting reported covid deaths.
- sgt101 6y ago
  Apart from things like heart attacks and strokes that are untreated because of patient caution?

mjul 6y ago

European mortality statistics are published by the Euromomo network and can be found here: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/