5 ms·

The economy held up pretty well, all things considered, and apparently much to the chagrin of the prophets of doom (not saying you are one or anything).

nicoburns 6y ago
Wouldn't we expect the bulk of the economic effects to hit at the end of the year (when the transition agreement expires)?
- growlist 6y ago
  Remember when we were told by George Osborne there would be an immediate recession the day after a Leave vote? Edit: 'Brexit could plunge Britain into an instant recession, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor have said in the starkest economic warning yet of the consequences of Britain leaving the European Union.' 'he Treasury said unemployment would be 520,000 higher, wages 2.8 per cent lower and house prices 10 per cent down. In a severe shock joblessness would be 820,000 higher, wages down by 4 per cent and house prices 18 per cent lower.' https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-to-create-instant-diy-recession-warns-george-osborne-a7042886.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-to-c... Edit: downvoting facts now? ok HN.
  - nicoburns 6y ago
    As I said in my original comment: wouldn't you expect the majority of the economic effects to hit after the economic situation changes? i.e. when British companies are suddenly subject to tariffs when exporting to Europe at the end of the year. The fact that George Osbourne said that they would happen immediately is neither here nor there really.
  - dnh44 6y ago
    The pound dropped a lot after the vote and it still hasn't recovered. That helps UK exporters a lot but it was still a pretty dramatic change. But I don't see how one asshole being wrong is evidence that Brexit is going to be a good thing.
  - mnm1 6y ago
    Are you saying the UK is not currently in a recession where it has been since at least February/March?
nondave 6y ago
I'm not sure we can come to any real conclusions about the economic impacts of it until we get well into 2021, even if many businesses have been preparing for it.
- growlist 6y ago
  ? so you also dispute the parent to my comment then: > Whilst technically true Brexit has been happening since 2016, and people and companies have been making decisions based on it.
  - nondave 6y ago
    I don't disagree that it's _been happening_, i.e. some of its effects have happened already and continue to do so, but I wouldn't want to say "done and dusted, economy's fine" until it's properly happened and we're into 2021.
  - nicoburns 6y ago
    Companies have been making decisions based on the potential future changes to their economic position. But their economic position hasn't actually changed yet. For many smaller companies there's not actually much they can do to prepare. They're just going to have to deal with the fallout when it happens. It seems to me that a lot of companies have gone with a "let's just carry on with business as usual while we still can" approach, and that they are going to get hit really badly when their product suddenly costs 20% more for a large proportiom of their customers.
    - dnh44 6y ago
      That's pretty much been our position exactly. Preparing is even more difficult because the final terms of Brexit are still undecided so we don't know what to prepare for. Preparing for the worst possible outcome for me would mean relocating everything (both business and family) to the EU except for staff, whom would no longer have jobs. This is obviously an ass-ache so I'm not going to do that unless I have to. On the other hand living somewhere with better weather could be nice so I'll take things as they come.
mpweiher 6y ago
Hmm...that "all things considered" is doing a lot of work here. Although the UK officially left in January of this year, we're still in the transition period, so none of the actual Brexit effects have happened yet, only anticipatory ones. So this is kinda like saying the fall off the cliff hasn't really been bad "so far" while still standing on top of said cliff. And yet, the £ is at all time lows and the cost so far has already been $170 billion, with another $70 billion by the end of the year. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-10/-170-billion-and-counting-the-cost-of-brexit-for-the-u-k https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-10/-170-bill...
- growlist 6y ago
  Ah come on - the general consensus was that the performance of the UK economy was far better than the prophets of doom (of which there were plenty) had forecasted. Don't change the goalposts now.
  - mpweiher 6y ago
    "Consensus" among who? The UK has been lagging: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2019/03/22/uk-economy-since-the-brexit-vote-slower-gdp-growth-lower-productivity-and-a-weaker-pound/ https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2019/03/22/uk-economy-sin... "Relative to G7 countries, however, the UK has slipped from having the highest growth rate in the G7 before the vote, to the lowest now (OBR 2018)" "Productivity has also suffered. " "The sterling has depreciated and increased costs." "Purchasing power has gone down." "Finally, both inward and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) have dropped since the referendum." --- https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1?r=DE&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-tha... "Brexit will have soon cost the UK more than all its payments to the EU over the past 47 years put together" --- https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/12/02/three-years-on-the-uk-is-paying-a-high-economic-price-for-its-decision-to-leave-the-eu/ https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/12/02/three-years-on-the... "Three years on: the UK is paying a high economic price for its decision to leave the EU" "While the UK started with a steeper growth trajectory, it has fallen behind other G7 countries since the referendum " "Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose dramatically from 0.4 percent in June 2016 to 3 percent in January 2018. " "Real wages dropped from a pre-referendum annual growth rate of 1.1% to less than 0.1% after the referendum" -- And not sure what you mean by "changing goalposts". Surely you agree that the effects of Brexit will primarily come into effect after Brexit has happened?
dnh44 6y ago
The prophets of doom may yet have their moment in the sun considering that no laws have changed yet. And no one knows what the actual rules are going to be come 1/1/2021. In my personal circumstances my business makes most of it's sales to the EU and if things happen like they look like might happen I'm going to be contractually forced to lower prices to compensate for any customs duty my customers will have to pay. Additionally I'll have to spend several more hours per week just to make customs documents, or hire someone to do it for me. So I'm still really hoping the customs union will remain intact.
- Animats 6y ago
  And no one knows what the actual rules are going to be come 1/1/2021. Right. There's still no deal between the UK and the EU. The UK still wants many of the benefits of being in the EU without submitting to the EU's trade rules.[1] [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/brexit-uk-trade-deal-unlikely-for-now-says-eu.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/brexit-uk-trade-deal-unlikel...

nicoburns 6y ago

Wouldn't we expect the bulk of the economic effects to hit at the end of the year (when the transition agreement expires)?

growlist 6y ago
Remember when we were told by George Osborne there would be an immediate recession the day after a Leave vote? Edit: 'Brexit could plunge Britain into an instant recession, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor have said in the starkest economic warning yet of the consequences of Britain leaving the European Union.' 'he Treasury said unemployment would be 520,000 higher, wages 2.8 per cent lower and house prices 10 per cent down. In a severe shock joblessness would be 820,000 higher, wages down by 4 per cent and house prices 18 per cent lower.' https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-to-create-instant-diy-recession-warns-george-osborne-a7042886.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-to-c... Edit: downvoting facts now? ok HN.
- nicoburns 6y ago
  As I said in my original comment: wouldn't you expect the majority of the economic effects to hit after the economic situation changes? i.e. when British companies are suddenly subject to tariffs when exporting to Europe at the end of the year. The fact that George Osbourne said that they would happen immediately is neither here nor there really.
- dnh44 6y ago
  The pound dropped a lot after the vote and it still hasn't recovered. That helps UK exporters a lot but it was still a pretty dramatic change. But I don't see how one asshole being wrong is evidence that Brexit is going to be a good thing.
- mnm1 6y ago
  Are you saying the UK is not currently in a recession where it has been since at least February/March?

nondave 6y ago

I'm not sure we can come to any real conclusions about the economic impacts of it until we get well into 2021, even if many businesses have been preparing for it.

growlist 6y ago
? so you also dispute the parent to my comment then: > Whilst technically true Brexit has been happening since 2016, and people and companies have been making decisions based on it.
- nondave 6y ago
  I don't disagree that it's _been happening_, i.e. some of its effects have happened already and continue to do so, but I wouldn't want to say "done and dusted, economy's fine" until it's properly happened and we're into 2021.
- nicoburns 6y ago
  Companies have been making decisions based on the potential future changes to their economic position. But their economic position hasn't actually changed yet. For many smaller companies there's not actually much they can do to prepare. They're just going to have to deal with the fallout when it happens. It seems to me that a lot of companies have gone with a "let's just carry on with business as usual while we still can" approach, and that they are going to get hit really badly when their product suddenly costs 20% more for a large proportiom of their customers.
  - dnh44 6y ago
    That's pretty much been our position exactly. Preparing is even more difficult because the final terms of Brexit are still undecided so we don't know what to prepare for. Preparing for the worst possible outcome for me would mean relocating everything (both business and family) to the EU except for staff, whom would no longer have jobs. This is obviously an ass-ache so I'm not going to do that unless I have to. On the other hand living somewhere with better weather could be nice so I'll take things as they come.

mpweiher 6y ago

Hmm...that "all things considered" is doing a lot of work here. Although the UK officially left in January of this year, we're still in the transition period, so none of the actual Brexit effects have happened yet, only anticipatory ones. So this is kinda like saying the fall off the cliff hasn't really been bad "so far" while still standing on top of said cliff. And yet, the £ is at all time lows and the cost so far has already been $170 billion, with another $70 billion by the end of the year. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-10/-170-billion-and-counting-the-cost-of-brexit-for-the-u-k https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-10/-170-bill...

growlist 6y ago
Ah come on - the general consensus was that the performance of the UK economy was far better than the prophets of doom (of which there were plenty) had forecasted. Don't change the goalposts now.
- mpweiher 6y ago
  "Consensus" among who? The UK has been lagging: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2019/03/22/uk-economy-since-the-brexit-vote-slower-gdp-growth-lower-productivity-and-a-weaker-pound/ https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2019/03/22/uk-economy-sin... "Relative to G7 countries, however, the UK has slipped from having the highest growth rate in the G7 before the vote, to the lowest now (OBR 2018)" "Productivity has also suffered. " "The sterling has depreciated and increased costs." "Purchasing power has gone down." "Finally, both inward and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) have dropped since the referendum." --- https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1?r=DE&IR=T https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-tha... "Brexit will have soon cost the UK more than all its payments to the EU over the past 47 years put together" --- https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/12/02/three-years-on-the-uk-is-paying-a-high-economic-price-for-its-decision-to-leave-the-eu/ https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/12/02/three-years-on-the... "Three years on: the UK is paying a high economic price for its decision to leave the EU" "While the UK started with a steeper growth trajectory, it has fallen behind other G7 countries since the referendum " "Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose dramatically from 0.4 percent in June 2016 to 3 percent in January 2018. " "Real wages dropped from a pre-referendum annual growth rate of 1.1% to less than 0.1% after the referendum" -- And not sure what you mean by "changing goalposts". Surely you agree that the effects of Brexit will primarily come into effect after Brexit has happened?

dnh44 6y ago

The prophets of doom may yet have their moment in the sun considering that no laws have changed yet. And no one knows what the actual rules are going to be come 1/1/2021. In my personal circumstances my business makes most of it's sales to the EU and if things happen like they look like might happen I'm going to be contractually forced to lower prices to compensate for any customs duty my customers will have to pay. Additionally I'll have to spend several more hours per week just to make customs documents, or hire someone to do it for me. So I'm still really hoping the customs union will remain intact.

Animats 6y ago
And no one knows what the actual rules are going to be come 1/1/2021. Right. There's still no deal between the UK and the EU. The UK still wants many of the benefits of being in the EU without submitting to the EU's trade rules.[1] [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/brexit-uk-trade-deal-unlikely-for-now-says-eu.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/brexit-uk-trade-deal-unlikel...