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I take your point generally but I think it's overstating it to say you learn nothing. Definitely the signal can be hard to isolate form the noise, but if it's a

by LeonB 6y ago

I take your point generally but I think it's overstating it to say you learn nothing. Definitely the signal can be hard to isolate form the noise, but if it's a big enough signal you'll hear it. For example: if sales fall off a cliff, it's reasonable to interpret that as "perhaps I over did it." and so on.

bachmeier 6y ago
> For example: if sales fall off a cliff, it's reasonable to interpret that as "perhaps I over did it." and so on. But (a) that's not the outcome, so it doesn't help here, and (b) with the pandemic, even if sales went to zero, you'd still need some way to know the effect of that.