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Thanks for the data points :) I think something to consider here is that there is an iterative development process taking place with the satellites. Given the

Thanks for the data points :) I think something to consider here is that there is an iterative development process taking place with the satellites. Given the stated lifespan of the satellites is 3-4 years, they likely expect to see additional innovation over time and are gambling that the network will be improved over time, and may one day actually be capable of serving urban areas. This seems like a wise approach and appears to work well for both SpaceX and Tesla. The most viable use case in the near term is clearly to serve remote and rural areas which is admittedly a small market. There is a chance you might see governments subsidize service to rural areas that are underserved. I also imagine there will be a number of marine and aviation customers - though that's likely even smaller than the rural market. But yeah, I'm not one of the people who will claim it will serve urban markets any time soon... That's rediculous - as rediculous as saying Tesla will achieve level 5 autonomous driving this decade

foobiekr 6y ago
I don't think the iterative nature actually helps SpaceX. Whatever use case they're targeting, and like I said, I don't know, and would like to know, isn't likely to be made more viable by bandwidth that changes substantially by the hour, and the total cost of getting a satellite into orbit makes generational turnover doubly challenging. I just do not get the business model. It makes no sense for commercial internet access, even in rural areas. I think perhaps temporary access in undeveloped areas, where the total capex is lower than that needed for a temporary LTE deployment, for example, might be it, but that is not a big market.
- jeffnappi 6y ago
  I guess we'll see if they can pull a rabbit out of a hat. A lot of folks didn't think battery electric cars were going to be possible either. And... Landing freaking rockets on barges in the ocean? I'm no fan boy, but I'm also not going to be a naysayer on this one. Starlink lets SpaceX make use of cores with long launch records that others may not be willing to risk their payloads on, and SpaceX can also use those launches to test other risky maneuvers. So... Perhaps there's some other value in Starlink that we're not privy to.

foobiekr 6y ago

I don't think the iterative nature actually helps SpaceX. Whatever use case they're targeting, and like I said, I don't know, and would like to know, isn't likely to be made more viable by bandwidth that changes substantially by the hour, and the total cost of getting a satellite into orbit makes generational turnover doubly challenging. I just do not get the business model. It makes no sense for commercial internet access, even in rural areas. I think perhaps temporary access in undeveloped areas, where the total capex is lower than that needed for a temporary LTE deployment, for example, might be it, but that is not a big market.

jeffnappi 6y ago
I guess we'll see if they can pull a rabbit out of a hat. A lot of folks didn't think battery electric cars were going to be possible either. And... Landing freaking rockets on barges in the ocean? I'm no fan boy, but I'm also not going to be a naysayer on this one. Starlink lets SpaceX make use of cores with long launch records that others may not be willing to risk their payloads on, and SpaceX can also use those launches to test other risky maneuvers. So... Perhaps there's some other value in Starlink that we're not privy to.