4 ms·
Ok, I see the problem here: > The epidemics in Sweden is mostly finished > This is what happened in UK, Italy, Sweden, France, New York or New Jersey. They ar
by _qulr 6y ago
Ok, I see the problem here:
> The epidemics in Sweden is mostly finished
> This is what happened in UK, Italy, Sweden, France, New York or New Jersey. They are now done with epidemics.
This is just way off base.
"Five months into Europe's pandemic and only 6% of the population here is known to have antibodies, according to Swedish Public Health Agency research."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133
The rate is difficult to measure, but even if it's significantly higher than 6%, it's nowhere near the estimated 70% required for herd immunity.
Life has not returned to normal, anywhere. They're still social distancing in New York and New Jersey, and even in Sweden.
Bringing the new cases under control is not the same as ending the pandemic. In the county I live in, we had new cases very much under control, but then the local governments bizarrely decided to reopen bars and sit-down restaurants, along with many other businesses, and predictably the cases almost immediately started spiking again. We're not done by a long shot. There's no quick fix.
- xyzzyz 6y agoI think the estimated threshold of 70% is way too high. That estimate is based on models that were shown to be wrong by empirical data we just observed. I think the herd immunity threshold is rather around 20-30%. I think coming few months will prove me right: we will see more and more relaxation of lockdowns, without corresponding increase in cases, but only in places where the epidemics have already came on hard. Where it hasn’t been much of a thing, we will see many new cases and deaths, until those too will subside.