4 ms·
Is it not just survivorship bias? Nobel Prizes are often awarded decades after the fact, and (except in a couple edge cases) are never awarded posthumously. Bei
by sparky_z 6y ago
Is it not just survivorship bias? Nobel Prizes are often awarded decades after the fact, and (except in a couple edge cases) are never awarded posthumously. Being long lived makes you more likely to receive the prize in your lifetime, not necessarily the other way around.
- IfOnlyYouKnew 6y agoThey are never awarded posthumously. But my completely unreliable gut instinct is to believe that most honourees are in their 50s and 60s, and that too few people die before that age for it having a significant impact here. Plus, of course, nominees tend to be very similar in most regards including age to the eventual winners.
- sparky_z 6y agoOn the contrary, consider Ralph Steinem [0], who was awarded the Medicine prize in 2011, three days after his death. The news had not yet reached the prize committee. There are a couple others[1,2] from decades past that were nominated before their death, and the committee selected them after their death, but that loophole was closed in 1974. As I said, edge cases. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ralph_M._Steinman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ralph_M._Steinman [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_Axel_Karlfeldt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_Axel_Karlfeldt [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dag_Hammarskjold https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dag_Hammarskjold