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Is it? In his book, Black Swan, he mentions his hedge fund, which did quite well during the peak of Covid https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/
by georgeburdell 6y ago
Is it? In his book, Black Swan, he mentions his hedge fund, which did quite well during the peak of Covid
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/taleb-advised-universa-tail-risk-fund-returned-3-600-in-march https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/taleb-adv...
- keiferski 6y agoNot quite sure that COVID counts as a Black Swan event, at least according to his own definition. From Wikipedia: The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: 1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology. 2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities). 3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. From your article: Taleb, in a March 30 interview on Bloomberg Television, said a pandemic like the coronavirus outbreak was predictable and investors who weren’t hedged paid the price with steep losses. What’s impossible to predict is the timing of such an event, he said, which is why insurance must be in place at all times. So essentially his "big idea" is the concept of insurance? That doesn't quite qualify as intellectually significant to me.