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I think this concern is overblown. It certainly hasn't stopped Canada and Mexico from negotiating the USMCA trade agreement, for example. The JCPOA (more commo

I think this concern is overblown. It certainly hasn't stopped Canada and Mexico from negotiating the USMCA trade agreement, for example. The JCPOA (more commonly known as the Iran deal) constrained Iran's nuclear program, and it was with great disappointment that I watched the administration withdraw. But there were anecdotal reports of transgressions on Iran's part, and the JCPOA was never submitted to the US Senate for ratification, which means it was never a legally binding agreement under U.S. law. Like the Paris climate agreement (most of its signatories saw their GHG emissions increase, but not the US; so much for the effectiveness of such agreements to achieve concrete progress in the fight against climate change).

_jal 6y ago
The incentives and risks look very different in a local free trade agreement than, say, multilateral talks about What To Do About Syria. Please name some relevant countries who might be willing to bet their internal security that a hypothetical 5 year security promise from the US would definitely be operative after year 4. But I do hope I'm wrong. I guess we'll see.
- throwaway0a5e 6y ago
  >Please name some relevant countries who might be willing to bet their internal security that a hypothetical 5 year security promise from the US would definitely be operative after year 4. Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Israel and everyone in NATO from Poland on west. Yes, we're going through a rough patch because the US is (rightfully) sick of playing world police at the same time as China/Russia are on the up but to think that the US and all the other regionally relevant powers (e.g. NATO members for Europe) wouldn't retaliate against an attempt to annex territories in any of those countries is crazy. Also Panama and Egypt (who both have critical global shipping lanes) don't really have to worry about their sovereignty being violated by any nation that the first world would expect to restrict access to their shipping lanes.
  - _jal 6y ago
    What does Taiwan have to do with Syria? If we're going to discuss this, let's not play "Goalposts? What are those?"
    - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
      You said: >Please name some relevant countries who might be willing to bet their internal security that a hypothetical 5 year security promise from the US would definitely be operative after year 4 I deem Taiwan to be a "relevant country" due to their relevance to the technology industry.
  - eropple 6y ago
    > the US is (rightfully) sick of playing world police That is not a reasonable description of the current situation unless you think that the guy whose party commands a thunderous minority but wins (both the Presidency and the Senate) due to electoral bugs gets to say what we, as Americans, are and are not "sick of".
    - anonbclibtards 6y ago
      > due to electoral bugs Electoral College is a bug when Democrats lose, got it. If both candidates campaigned knowing that the popular vote was the deciding factor, we would have seen different campaign strategies and there's no way of knowing the winner. Both sides knew the rules going in, Hillary lost, by a lot.
    - bobthechef 6y ago
      Indeed, world police is the role any international hegemon plays to secure trade routes and stability. But I wouldn't discredit the idea entirely. NATO does have its requirements and few members chip in their fair share. Furthermore, geopolitical interests are shifting and this fact may be politically useful. Right now, for example, the US, Germany/EU, and Russia are fighting over influence in the central European states with Poland at the helm. Shifting military presence eastward strengthens American influence, blocks Russian meddling, and frustrates German/EU power in the region, though the last is trying to make the US dominance work for them (note Germany's interest in the American-backed Three Seas Initiative).
hpkuarg 6y ago
Do you have a source I could read on the Paris Agreement and its signatories' emissions increase? That is interesting.
- sp332 6y ago
  Quick summary: USA and EU emissions are down, China is up a bit, India is up a lot. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_China#/media/File:Total_CO2_by_Region.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_Ch... EU emissions overall are down, but with large differences between countries. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9779945/8-08052019-AP-EN.pdf/9594d125-9163-446c-b650-b2b00c531d2b https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9779945/8-08...
qserasera 6y ago
Just as a reminder for everyone reading this the JCPOA has been violated for almost a year by Iran and they seem to be much closer at maintaining weapons grade enrichment and warheads.

_jal 6y ago

The incentives and risks look very different in a local free trade agreement than, say, multilateral talks about What To Do About Syria. Please name some relevant countries who might be willing to bet their internal security that a hypothetical 5 year security promise from the US would definitely be operative after year 4. But I do hope I'm wrong. I guess we'll see.

throwaway0a5e 6y ago
>Please name some relevant countries who might be willing to bet their internal security that a hypothetical 5 year security promise from the US would definitely be operative after year 4. Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Israel and everyone in NATO from Poland on west. Yes, we're going through a rough patch because the US is (rightfully) sick of playing world police at the same time as China/Russia are on the up but to think that the US and all the other regionally relevant powers (e.g. NATO members for Europe) wouldn't retaliate against an attempt to annex territories in any of those countries is crazy. Also Panama and Egypt (who both have critical global shipping lanes) don't really have to worry about their sovereignty being violated by any nation that the first world would expect to restrict access to their shipping lanes.
- _jal 6y ago
  What does Taiwan have to do with Syria? If we're going to discuss this, let's not play "Goalposts? What are those?"
  - throwaway0a5e 6y ago
    You said: >Please name some relevant countries who might be willing to bet their internal security that a hypothetical 5 year security promise from the US would definitely be operative after year 4 I deem Taiwan to be a "relevant country" due to their relevance to the technology industry.
- eropple 6y ago
  > the US is (rightfully) sick of playing world police That is not a reasonable description of the current situation unless you think that the guy whose party commands a thunderous minority but wins (both the Presidency and the Senate) due to electoral bugs gets to say what we, as Americans, are and are not "sick of".
  - anonbclibtards 6y ago
    > due to electoral bugs Electoral College is a bug when Democrats lose, got it. If both candidates campaigned knowing that the popular vote was the deciding factor, we would have seen different campaign strategies and there's no way of knowing the winner. Both sides knew the rules going in, Hillary lost, by a lot.
  - bobthechef 6y ago
    Indeed, world police is the role any international hegemon plays to secure trade routes and stability. But I wouldn't discredit the idea entirely. NATO does have its requirements and few members chip in their fair share. Furthermore, geopolitical interests are shifting and this fact may be politically useful. Right now, for example, the US, Germany/EU, and Russia are fighting over influence in the central European states with Poland at the helm. Shifting military presence eastward strengthens American influence, blocks Russian meddling, and frustrates German/EU power in the region, though the last is trying to make the US dominance work for them (note Germany's interest in the American-backed Three Seas Initiative).

hpkuarg 6y ago

Do you have a source I could read on the Paris Agreement and its signatories' emissions increase? That is interesting.

sp332 6y ago
Quick summary: USA and EU emissions are down, China is up a bit, India is up a lot. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_China#/media/File:Total_CO2_by_Region.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_Ch... EU emissions overall are down, but with large differences between countries. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9779945/8-08052019-AP-EN.pdf/9594d125-9163-446c-b650-b2b00c531d2b https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9779945/8-08...

qserasera 6y ago

Just as a reminder for everyone reading this the JCPOA has been violated for almost a year by Iran and they seem to be much closer at maintaining weapons grade enrichment and warheads.