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I think we'll see the beginnings of a regulatory moat in the not too distant future. Tech workers have the benefit of hindsight, having seen U.S. manufacturing

by tharne 6y ago

I think we'll see the beginnings of a regulatory moat in the not too distant future. Tech workers have the benefit of hindsight, having seen U.S. manufacturing jobs get decimated in the last few decades. A lot of fields already have built in protection from foreign competition. For instance, most if all states require that anyone conducting telemedicine work needs to be both licensed in the state were the service is being performed. Given the leftward drift of the Democratic party and Republican's newfound disdain for the big tech companies and things like HB1 visas, I would be shocked if we don't see some significant restrictions on how foreign workers are used in the tech sector.

sokoloff 6y ago
I’m somewhat less sure. In a lot of cases in software, someone today in location L is creating software for the world and only a tiny slice of users are in the geographic/political entity where L is located. I don’t see the same level of natural protections for workers in CA, MA, TX that are present for the telemedicine example. If you’re writing software for the world, you might have temporarily enjoyed a bubble few decades in time where you could serve the world but only had to compete on an even footing against other labor situated in a high-cost area. This world-scale pre-post test of working remotely may be the discontinuity that aligns a global workforce to a global user base. (Remote collaboration completely sidesteps the H1B issue, of course.)
ghaff 6y ago
A lot of US tech people wouldn't be happy if the government started requiring, say, Professional Engineer licenses (which in turn require 4 year degrees) for a lot of positions.
- tharne 6y ago
  Fair enough, but the trend in everything does seem to be in favor of increased "credentialization". Heck, you need a license just to paint someone's toenails for a few bucks. And in most cases the primarily benefit of credentials is to limit and control the number of individuals in a given occupation. An added benefit goes to rent seekers like governments and credentialing services make a pretty penny too.

by tharne 6y ago

sokoloff 6y ago

I’m somewhat less sure. In a lot of cases in software, someone today in location L is creating software for the world and only a tiny slice of users are in the geographic/political entity where L is located. I don’t see the same level of natural protections for workers in CA, MA, TX that are present for the telemedicine example. If you’re writing software for the world, you might have temporarily enjoyed a bubble few decades in time where you could serve the world but only had to compete on an even footing against other labor situated in a high-cost area. This world-scale pre-post test of working remotely may be the discontinuity that aligns a global workforce to a global user base. (Remote collaboration completely sidesteps the H1B issue, of course.)

ghaff 6y ago

A lot of US tech people wouldn't be happy if the government started requiring, say, Professional Engineer licenses (which in turn require 4 year degrees) for a lot of positions.

tharne 6y ago
Fair enough, but the trend in everything does seem to be in favor of increased "credentialization". Heck, you need a license just to paint someone's toenails for a few bucks. And in most cases the primarily benefit of credentials is to limit and control the number of individuals in a given occupation. An added benefit goes to rent seekers like governments and credentialing services make a pretty penny too.