4 ms·
What are the stages of tech again? 1: That's crazy. 2: It wont work 3: Well maybe it works a bit, but it will never do X. 4: Maybe it can do X but it will never
by plutonorm 6y ago
What are the stages of tech again?
1: That's crazy.
2: It wont work
3: Well maybe it works a bit, but it will never do X.
4: Maybe it can do X but it will never do Y.
5: It was obvious all along it would work, didn't you know?
We are now at stage 3.5 to 4. It's absolutely obvious to anyone who isn't merely regurgitating what they hear and who does not have a vested interest in maintaining the illusion to themselves that there is something special about human consciousness, that we are pretty close to GAI. We are very close, the bitter lesson, at this point is crystal clear. All that is required here is more power. 10x? 100x, 1000x? Who knows but pretty soon your job is going to be automated and all these nonsense conversations about what constitutes 'genuine' AGI are going to seem a bit silly.
- mikeshank 6y agosettle down Hal
- ben_w 6y agoI disagree: Nobody really knows how close or far AGI is, because we don’t know enough about our own minds to tell how close we are to reproducing them. Step 4 has happened many times in this history of AI, but how many more are there between what we have and what we want? We’ll find out by trying. Might be GPT-4, might be 2032 (my personal guesstimate), might be 2100. If this was always as simple as throwing more compute and more data at it… then my optimistic forecast in 2009 would’ve been right and companies like Google and Tesla would have stopped shipping their cars with steering wheels in 2020 year, after about two years of their AI being demonstrably superhuman.