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Panasonic aims to boost energy density in Tesla batteries by 20%

25 points by admiralspoo 6y ago

Havoc 6y ago
Bold claim for something that I'd imagine must be pretty close to diminishing return on RD
Animats 6y ago
"by 20% in five years" 20% now would be news. 20% in 5 years is "what's taking you so long"? Since 2000, lithium-battery energy density has doubled each decade. There's a limit, but another 100% improvement by 2030 is a projection.[1] [1] https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Projected-Li-ion-battery-costs-88-and-micro-battery-energy-density-92-as-functions-of_fig13_315747192 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Projected-Li-ion-battery...
- credit_guy 6y ago
  The graph you are linking to shows something like 15% in 5 years and 30% in 10 years.
  - Animats 6y ago
    More than that, but, yes, less than 100% More like 63% in 10 years. 2000 - 125 2010 - 200 2020 - 325 2030 - 425
    - credit_guy 6y ago
      We are now in 2020. From 325 to 425 it's about 30%, not 63%. The past increments are not that relevant for what's being discussed here. Panasonic is aiming for a 20% increase in 5 years, that's from now to 2025. In that graph the projected increase is below that, at about 15%, so, yes, the Panasonic thing is kind of a big deal.
- new_realist 6y ago
  So in five years these batteries will be equivalent to the newer format batteries already in use in the Model 3 as well as offered by competitors today. Those 2170s are a dead end.
  - xref 6y ago
    Not sure what you’re trying to say or being sarcastic or what. I know the Model 3 used the new 2170 cells instead of the 18650‘s. The article itself mentions the improvements are going into the 2170 cells.
ncmncm 6y ago
Three years ago they were promising 3x by 2021. What happened?
rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
This improvement is for cells made by Panasonic, for Tesla. The thing is, Tesla plans to be manufacturing its own cells by then, and they certainly don't intend to produce less energy-dense batteries than their suppliers. We'll see on Battery & Powertrain Investors day (Sept. 22). Elon recently invited OEMs to partner with Tesla for battery supplies. I wouldn't be surprised that they keep their in-house cells for Tesla vehicles and stationary storage, and make "their" Panasonic cells available to auto competitors (this way, they secure the global supply chain, set prices for the industry, have the option to bundle other products/services, etc.) "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer."
woodandsteel 6y ago
Great but more important is how battery prices keep falling. Power density is already high enough that long range versions of the Model 3 can go 400 miles, which, with fast charging available when needed, is enough for the vast majority of auto owners. The problem is that the battery pack that takes makes the cars too expensive to purchase for most people. But in a few more years falling prices will make ev's similar in sticker prices to comparable ice's. That plus much lower operating costs will cause ev sales to skyrocket.

25 points by admiralspoo 6y ago

Bold claim for something that I'd imagine must be pretty close to diminishing return on RD

"by 20% in five years" 20% now would be news. 20% in 5 years is "what's taking you so long"? Since 2000, lithium-battery energy density has doubled each decade. There's a limit, but another 100% improvement by 2030 is a projection.[1] [1] https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Projected-Li-ion-battery-costs-88-and-micro-battery-energy-density-92-as-functions-of_fig13_315747192 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Projected-Li-ion-battery...

credit_guy 6y ago
The graph you are linking to shows something like 15% in 5 years and 30% in 10 years.
- Animats 6y ago
  More than that, but, yes, less than 100% More like 63% in 10 years. 2000 - 125 2010 - 200 2020 - 325 2030 - 425
  - credit_guy 6y ago
    We are now in 2020. From 325 to 425 it's about 30%, not 63%. The past increments are not that relevant for what's being discussed here. Panasonic is aiming for a 20% increase in 5 years, that's from now to 2025. In that graph the projected increase is below that, at about 15%, so, yes, the Panasonic thing is kind of a big deal.
new_realist 6y ago
So in five years these batteries will be equivalent to the newer format batteries already in use in the Model 3 as well as offered by competitors today. Those 2170s are a dead end.
- xref 6y ago
  Not sure what you’re trying to say or being sarcastic or what. I know the Model 3 used the new 2170 cells instead of the 18650‘s. The article itself mentions the improvements are going into the 2170 cells.

ncmncm 6y ago

Three years ago they were promising 3x by 2021. What happened?

rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago

This improvement is for cells made by Panasonic, for Tesla. The thing is, Tesla plans to be manufacturing its own cells by then, and they certainly don't intend to produce less energy-dense batteries than their suppliers. We'll see on Battery & Powertrain Investors day (Sept. 22). Elon recently invited OEMs to partner with Tesla for battery supplies. I wouldn't be surprised that they keep their in-house cells for Tesla vehicles and stationary storage, and make "their" Panasonic cells available to auto competitors (this way, they secure the global supply chain, set prices for the industry, have the option to bundle other products/services, etc.) "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer."

woodandsteel 6y ago

Great but more important is how battery prices keep falling. Power density is already high enough that long range versions of the Model 3 can go 400 miles, which, with fast charging available when needed, is enough for the vast majority of auto owners. The problem is that the battery pack that takes makes the cars too expensive to purchase for most people. But in a few more years falling prices will make ev's similar in sticker prices to comparable ice's. That plus much lower operating costs will cause ev sales to skyrocket.