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I'm sure Google's revenues would have gone down someday without the pandemic. But it would be a very surprising thing for them to suddenly go from record growth
by asdfasgasdgasdg 6y ago
I'm sure Google's revenues would have gone down someday without the pandemic. But it would be a very surprising thing for them to suddenly go from record growth one year to down the next without any exogenous events.
- ChuckMcM 6y agoAs I see it, it sort of hinges on the constraint of what is exogenous. Clearly the privacy initiatives in Europe and California have cost them data revenue, the various fines they have been paying have cost them revenue. Is it still exogenous if it is indirectly a result of what they are doing? (this is actually a serious question on how to draw the line there) They also have a history of burning through money (both opex and capex) which makes them very very susceptible to revenue dips. So my expectation has always been they would post some record revenue one quarter, and then the gas would run out of their various tricks and they would post flat to down revenue the next. That it went from record to year over year down in a single quarter, sure. But during the "Great Recession" in 2009 they didn't even go flat, so perhaps a more accurate statement is that their resiliency has been removed. I'll put a prediction here we can come back and look at and see how wrong I was :-). If they have more than two quarters that are down year over year, they will have a significant cost restructuring activity of either a layoff, or selling off one of their sub-businesses, or both.