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I have to say I was wrong when I thought strict lockdown wasn’t necessary in April-June. US suffered catastrophic GDP shrinkage without even the benefit of pan

by sadfev 6y ago

I have to say I was wrong when I thought strict lockdown wasn’t necessary in April-June. US suffered catastrophic GDP shrinkage without even the benefit of pandemic being manageable. It would have been preferable to have a even more catastrophic Q2 and slow but steady recovery from then on. Now this constant start-stop isn’t helping the economy recover while the pandemic is still wrecking havoc! COVID-19 exposed every level of inefficiency and incompetency in governance, healthcare and public discourse in USA

NotSammyHagar 6y ago
Thanks for sharing a potentially embarrassing opinion. What changed in your thoughts between then and now, what convinced you to change? We can still do a couple of month shutdown and stop this thing. But there would be more political resistance than ever, because we are stupid as a collective society in america. I'd like to understand what impacted your thinking, maybe we can replicate that in explaining the situation.
- sadfev 6y ago
  I had more faith in the medical infrastructure of the US and common sense of the populace! How wrong I was! I had no idea how woefully underprepared hospitals were for ANY kind of emergency. Who in the actual world has a coronavirus party? The lack of policing when it came to stop crowds (ironic right?), the strange refusal to wear a mask, the bizzare and blatant apathy. I could list many things but I have to say, the federal and state governments completely dropped the ball when it came to tracing and enforcing quarantine. I was reading how Sweden, Germany and South Korea handled the initial pandemic. Now even the hardest hit countries like Spain and Italy are faring very well. Sweden didn’t close the country at all and relied mostly on voluntary confinement/quarantine though the strategy has been criticized for not protecting elderly but there isn’t a total economic shutdown or untamable level of pandemic. US got the worst of both worlds mass unemployment, screeching slow economy and uncontrollable intensity of pandemic.
  - mycall 6y ago
    There is a shared blame to go around to all the science deniers, "news" organizations included.
  - salmon30salmon 6y ago
    COVID parties were mostly fabricated. Don't spread FUD. Unless we locked down until there is a vaccine cases would return.
jacques_chester 6y ago
I remember you arguing that case and I appreciate that you have the guts and honesty to change your mind out loud.
salmon30salmon 6y ago
I am sorry, but I think you overcorrected. The problem was that we locked down at all. Nearly the same mitigation could have happened with masks, distance and isolation. Yes, testing was a shitshow. But look at Spain, Australia etc. If you lock down, eventually the virus comes back. Here are literally the only options: 1. Lockdown fully and completely until there is a vaccine that's distributed 2. Lockdown hard until cases in (Region) are zero and then reopen without any outside entry to (Region) 3. Take public health measures like masking, isolation of sick, protection of weak and accept cases and deaths 4. Ignore it, accept lots of death and cases This virus will continue to spread until there is immunity, either through natural means or vaccine. Lockdowns don't stop the virus unless migration is also stopped. Period. All it takes is one person to fall through the cracks and your 6 months of lockdown are thrown out the window. There are structural problems that need to be addressed, the fact that hospitals are profit driven and operate near 100% capacity at all times. The fact that our public health departments are political by their leadership. The fact that there is zero trust of anyone anywhere. But you fix all of those and you still have a virus that will spread until immunizations levels are met. Finally, the Gulf States are having their _first wave_! They flattened the curve during the NYC outbreak. But people moved, virus spread. Lockdowns are a terrible, blunt, unsustainable, damaging, dangerous and ineffective in the long run.

by sadfev 6y ago

NotSammyHagar 6y ago

Thanks for sharing a potentially embarrassing opinion. What changed in your thoughts between then and now, what convinced you to change? We can still do a couple of month shutdown and stop this thing. But there would be more political resistance than ever, because we are stupid as a collective society in america. I'd like to understand what impacted your thinking, maybe we can replicate that in explaining the situation.

sadfev 6y ago
I had more faith in the medical infrastructure of the US and common sense of the populace! How wrong I was! I had no idea how woefully underprepared hospitals were for ANY kind of emergency. Who in the actual world has a coronavirus party? The lack of policing when it came to stop crowds (ironic right?), the strange refusal to wear a mask, the bizzare and blatant apathy. I could list many things but I have to say, the federal and state governments completely dropped the ball when it came to tracing and enforcing quarantine. I was reading how Sweden, Germany and South Korea handled the initial pandemic. Now even the hardest hit countries like Spain and Italy are faring very well. Sweden didn’t close the country at all and relied mostly on voluntary confinement/quarantine though the strategy has been criticized for not protecting elderly but there isn’t a total economic shutdown or untamable level of pandemic. US got the worst of both worlds mass unemployment, screeching slow economy and uncontrollable intensity of pandemic.
- mycall 6y ago
  There is a shared blame to go around to all the science deniers, "news" organizations included.
- salmon30salmon 6y ago
  COVID parties were mostly fabricated. Don't spread FUD. Unless we locked down until there is a vaccine cases would return.

jacques_chester 6y ago

I remember you arguing that case and I appreciate that you have the guts and honesty to change your mind out loud.

salmon30salmon 6y ago

I am sorry, but I think you overcorrected. The problem was that we locked down at all. Nearly the same mitigation could have happened with masks, distance and isolation. Yes, testing was a shitshow. But look at Spain, Australia etc. If you lock down, eventually the virus comes back. Here are literally the only options: 1. Lockdown fully and completely until there is a vaccine that's distributed 2. Lockdown hard until cases in (Region) are zero and then reopen without any outside entry to (Region) 3. Take public health measures like masking, isolation of sick, protection of weak and accept cases and deaths 4. Ignore it, accept lots of death and cases This virus will continue to spread until there is immunity, either through natural means or vaccine. Lockdowns don't stop the virus unless migration is also stopped. Period. All it takes is one person to fall through the cracks and your 6 months of lockdown are thrown out the window. There are structural problems that need to be addressed, the fact that hospitals are profit driven and operate near 100% capacity at all times. The fact that our public health departments are political by their leadership. The fact that there is zero trust of anyone anywhere. But you fix all of those and you still have a virus that will spread until immunizations levels are met. Finally, the Gulf States are having their _first wave_! They flattened the curve during the NYC outbreak. But people moved, virus spread. Lockdowns are a terrible, blunt, unsustainable, damaging, dangerous and ineffective in the long run.